BTC going up or down?

15 May 2023

Review from last session (4/27):
There were two orange arrows indicating a similar magnitude to the AB=CD pattern, which leaned towards a 5-wave structure. However, the possibility of human intervention was high due to the first wave breaking. Additionally, the volume did not increase, which is another indication of intervention. There was a symmetrical pattern in the structure, and if it is valid, there is a chance of touching the upper side. At the same time, the 5-wave structure is completed.

However, it is uncertain whether there will be a big pullback before another attack. If there is, it is important to pay attention to the three red lines in the white arrow.

The downward trend line (left to right) has a high degree of stickiness, and it is likely to oscillate back and forth. The departure volume will be strong.

The line below the upward trend is the key to whether the bull will continue or not. If it breaks, be cautious of the bear's comeback. However, the pullback should not be too deep. In principle, it should be within the light-colored box or touch the orange Yin-Yang line to continue the attack.

The line above is the bullish pressure. If it cannot be attacked, there is a high probability of a quick pullback.

As expected, it came back to touch the orange line and bounced back. There is a chance of short-term attack.

Let's talk about the overall direction first. I changed the highly sticky red line to purple (some people said it would be easier to understand if I changed the color). When attacking again, pay special attention to this line. If it is unsuccessful, it will be a disaster. Especially if tested multiple times, the reaction will be more intense. In principle, whether it is up or down, it is within the range of the two red lines.

In judging, pay attention to whether the volume has increased. If the volume is still shrinking, be careful when attacking.

In the short term, pay attention to whether the short orange line can stand on the retracement and continue to attack. If it can reach the long orange line, it is normal to start the market. Stop loss can be set at the dotted line or short orange line. It depends on individual tolerance.

In principle, it is still bullish until June. However, there will still be some fluctuations in the short term. The key to stop loss is to control risk. Although it may miss some opportunities, it will not lose in the long run.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7T7ByQkS/ BINANCE:BTCUSDT

上期回顧 (4/27)
兩個橘箭頭 AB=CD 等幅度相近 甚至還多一些
偏向5浪結構
但一浪破位 人為操作的可能性偏大
另外量能沒有加大 也是判定是操作的原因
結構上有左右對稱的型態
如果成立上方有機會去摸
同時也完成5浪結構

唯獨是否會在來一個大回調 再攻
如果有就要注意白色箭頭那三條紅線

下降趨勢那條(左斜到右)
這條黏性很高高機率會來回盤一下
伴隨著離開量能會很強

上升趨勢下面那一條是能否續牛的關鍵 破了就要小心熊回頭
但回調應該不會走到那麼深 原則上淡色框內或碰觸橘色陰陽線
就會續攻

上面那條是多方壓力 如果攻不上 很大機率回抽會很快速



算是如預期 回來摸了橘色線就回彈
短線上再攻的機會有

先談大方向
黏性很高的紅線我改成紫色（有人反應換個顏色比較好懂）
再次上攻要特別注意這條線
不成功便成仁
特別是測試愈多次 反應會越劇烈
原則上 不管是上下
區間還是在還是上下兩條紅線內

判斷上 注意量能是否有放大
如果還是量縮上攻就要注意

短線上關注短橘線能否站上回測再往上續攻
如果能上長橘線 那開始盤一下都正常
而止損就設在虛線部份或短橘線皆可
端看個人承受能力

原則上還是看多到6月
只是短期震盪還是會有一定幅度
對於止損要拿捏好
以降低風險的角度來看
設保守雖然會錯失一些機會 但是長期而言是不會損失的

共勉之