Bitcoin: Long-term analysis & major levels to watch - PART 2

19 May

So where to now for BTC? In my previous post I explained that BTC had hit a major Primeval Fib (2207 level fib), which had thrown it sideways for a couple of months. While it is entirely possible that BTC could fall back again (e.g. to US58k support zone) or even further, I think this is relatively unlikely. The chart is bullish in my opinion and I think the white fib in this chart is a reasonable target at ~82k.

I would expect some sideways action to follow that, with possibly a drop to the 2207 Primeval Fib at ~US70.5k. But even if this is the result, that doesn't exclude the possibility of a proper push up to US84k, which is marked by another old Fib (see previous post).

I hate looking far into the future as charts ALWAYS develop different to what we expect, but my "cross-fingers & closed-eyes Ultimate Best Case" scenario for 2024 is to see price action hit the next Primeval Fib (the 3571 level fib) at US114k. If that happens consider stepping out for a while!

I think a short to medium term bullish scenario (3 month timeframe) is supported by the BTC.D chart - which charts BTC market dominance (first chart below). This chart shows BTC dominance levelling off, which makes me think ALT coins are going to outperform. As we know, this typically happens towards the end of a BTC push to the upside. The second chart below shows the same pattern to the end of 2021, followed by a big drop in dominance over 2022, when ALT coins pumped.

And that brings me to my second point for this post. Do NOT discount the real possibility that quality ALT coins will increase in dominance (and count in ICP!) over the next three months and hopefully the remainder of 2024! Happy trading!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6nqimW5Z/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QPzD2AIV/