Last chance to buy-in coming up? $8,300 -7,800

20 Mar 2018

Novice but I've managed to predict the last 2 bottoms so 3's the charm, right?

- The market is prepping and testing resistance past $8,600 right now calculating the requirements to push back up to the channel - now at $9,900 (not 12K).
- Based on historical drops (previous years) I'm expecting a slight retracement then a little more consolidation before the run to break the channel. FIB estimates retracement back to $7,800 which I think others are predicting - It would make sense to retest support.
- RSI and other indicators look good
- With the positive news in the market I can't see another drop beyond this unless there an exchange is hacked.
- Biggest gains will be EOS, NEO, Ripple. I'm gonna miss analysing BTC.
- Excuse the messy on the charts :)

Open to other theories.

20 Mar 2018

Not

Note that I've underestimated the depth of drops before which is why if it does drop I'll buy on the way back up rather than guessing the bottom - hence the 8,300 on the return. If it goes up then I've lost the gap from $8,500 to where I buy back in at which for me is worth negating the risk for.

My last 'bottom' target of 7,300 was based on resistance which was pretty obvious to most, I think those going long now are nodding to analysis but paying more attention to the G20 news which will reduce the hesitance from bigger investors - thus TA is only one factor that can be superseded by macro events. Those going short are providing solid analysis but trends change.

21 Mar 2018

Not

I'm still bullish but I think the nerves are showing in the crypto community.

I believe that If you look back on trading view you will see that there were more short appraisals of the BTC market during November and December than there were Long - despite the massive gains!! Natural Behavioral Economics wins out - Loss Aversion.

I do still anticipate a retracement but do not think we will break the parabolic trend line / channel. If we did then the Market Maker is a bastard!! :)

22 Mar 2018

Not

Well, the retracement/drop looks to be happening - helped by a centralised Exchange and a rightly pissed off teenager.

As we near the near the end I think 8,330 to 7,551 will hold for a good a day or so to develop enough bull signals to get those people on board who are holding out for a further drop. A decision has to be made in the next 48 hours either way. If it goes down beyond this I'm gonna hate all those calling a £6k bottom ;)

24 Mar 2018

Not

Following up on this idea.
Retracement complete I'm expecting a bounce off 9,100, down to 8,600 support before a run for 9,500 and break the trend line.
$8330 was a reasonable call but I did not commit a trade as I expected a deeper drop so missed some of the action. I'm pleased I did as I made the call that the risks were too great and I felt that if 8,300 was broken there would be a big drop (which I think we were close to but I also noticed a slight uptick in volume). Yes, missed a few % but as a novice I'd rather be cautious in this crazy market! I also had a hangover so wanted to avoid making an emotional call :))

Still Bullish

24 Mar 2018

Not

Looking at the 1hr RSI and Volume we are primed to make a run. Eyeing buy ops

24 Mar 2018

Not

If it fails to break through... meh