Bearish sentiment is intact

21 Mar 2022

Morning folks,

Despite that market has climbed slightly higher, since our previous discussion, we do not see any changes in sentiment of the market. Reaction on Fed statement was weaker than on other markets. Despite, we treat Fed statement as hawkish (we've explained our position last time) which brings a lot of headwinds to the BTC in longer term perspective. That's why currently we do not see any reasons to cancel our downside target @ 26K and expectations of downside continuation.

Besides, if we compare right now the performance of S&P index last week and BTC one, we see the big difference, as BTC looks anemic. This just shows that investors have low interest to BTC and prefer blue chips stocks first, treating the BTC as stocks of a low quality.

Technically it is visible in the shape of the upside performance. With tactic, minor upside AB-CD pattern, the CD leg is much slower than it should be and this is bearish sign. While market is contracting, and forming narrowing triangle - you could recognize multiple patterns in both directions. Mostly they are butterflies of different scales and sizes. And we can't forbid you to trade them, trying to anticipate its appearing. But...

Our personal position that bears have more points right now, which makes us to treat bearish scenario as more probable. While market is coiling inside this triangle we suggest that to wait is best choice by far.