BTC bottomed or is downside still valid?

Update: Maybe I was wrong. BTC trying to breakout falling wedge. It went from 46k to 49k in a flash.
Bearish scenario: My previous thesis for 40-42k Pitchfork green line proven support is still valid unless BTC breaks above 50k.
Bullish signs: BITO & SPY just made an ISLAND REVERSAL. Maybe the Dec 20 fear is just overblown.

Various signs to consider: VIX returning from 30 back inside the 20-15:positive range for rallies in the next 30 days.(Santa may be late but still coming)
VXX, a measure of the volatility of VIX, turned down at 30 & now returning to 20....a calming before the storm?
HYG high yield Treasury dropped to 86 when SPY was near ATH, a warning DIVERGENCE that I missed. But 86 is a good support so may that is a risk-on sign again for the risk assets like BTC & stocks....explaining the Island Reversal.
This is not financial advise...just my analysis.
If it helps pls follow & like.