BTC at the Halfway Point

Based on the measured distance from previous cycle bottoms, the next cycle low is expected to occur between late-September and November 2026. This gives Bitcoin roughly two years to make a significant move, assuming no major changes in market structure. A push to new all-time highs could happen as early as late-2024, but a more conservative estimate places this around mid-2025. It's also possible we see a sharp upward move as late as the end of 2025, before a more significant drawdown.

Note: The numbers you see on the chart represent the price increases from bottom-to-bottom. It is my estimate that we will see approximately a 220% increase from the bottom in 2022 and the bottom in 2026, leaving price at around $50,000.