BTC is still going through a rough correction. The daily and weekly closes look pretty bad. Question in front of us is, if the bull market over already. The answer is a maybe; but not yet. Let's take a look at the market structure.
Bearish cases:
1. BTC price has broken below the 20 day EMA and SMA levels and getting resistance there.
2. BTC price is currently testing 50 day EMA and SMA levels.
3. Bearish engulfing weekly close; nasty stuff.
4. Price got rejected from the top side of the upward channel since March low.
Neutral cases:
1. BTC price is testing the previous breakout point at a higher time frame.
2. BTC is testing 50 daily EMA/SMA after EMA crossed above SMA.
3. BTC is retesting 10 weekly EMA as the major bull market support.
Bullish cases (still):
1. Higher low structure is still intact, even in daily timeframe.
2. Major players in the market are still buying in.
3. Momentum to the downside is stabilizing. I don't have any indicators on this chart, but if you put in RSI indicator on, you will see bullish divergences building as price is falling.
What to watch next:
1. I will watch 50 day EMA and SMA levels. If there are closure below 50 SMA and failure to move back up on the first try, it is time to lighten up the bag.
2. 20 week EMA hasn't been tested since Oct 2020. If 10 weekly EMA or 50 daily EMA is broken that would be the next test. It will be be quite a drop from here to the last higher low market structure. A break below that could be the beginning of the end. It would still not negate the bull market momentum completely, but the probability will increase.
3. Best thing for the bull market to stay alive will be to go sideways and range between 42 K and 52 K for a few weeks. This will be the high time for traps on both sides, so have to keep calm and refrain from any rash moves.
Since March of 2020 BTC has gained almost 15x. It is remarkable in any standard. Even though BTC has made bigger moves in the past, we need to remember the weight is much bigger now in terms of value. Even if BTC plunges into a bear market now, it is still going to outperform any markets out there and at this point it is almost but certain there will be higher prices sometime in the future. Good luck out there.
Bearish cases:
1. BTC price has broken below the 20 day EMA and SMA levels and getting resistance there.
2. BTC price is currently testing 50 day EMA and SMA levels.
3. Bearish engulfing weekly close; nasty stuff.
4. Price got rejected from the top side of the upward channel since March low.
Neutral cases:
1. BTC price is testing the previous breakout point at a higher time frame.
2. BTC is testing 50 daily EMA/SMA after EMA crossed above SMA.
3. BTC is retesting 10 weekly EMA as the major bull market support.
Bullish cases (still):
1. Higher low structure is still intact, even in daily timeframe.
2. Major players in the market are still buying in.
3. Momentum to the downside is stabilizing. I don't have any indicators on this chart, but if you put in RSI indicator on, you will see bullish divergences building as price is falling.
What to watch next:
1. I will watch 50 day EMA and SMA levels. If there are closure below 50 SMA and failure to move back up on the first try, it is time to lighten up the bag.
2. 20 week EMA hasn't been tested since Oct 2020. If 10 weekly EMA or 50 daily EMA is broken that would be the next test. It will be be quite a drop from here to the last higher low market structure. A break below that could be the beginning of the end. It would still not negate the bull market momentum completely, but the probability will increase.
3. Best thing for the bull market to stay alive will be to go sideways and range between 42 K and 52 K for a few weeks. This will be the high time for traps on both sides, so have to keep calm and refrain from any rash moves.
Since March of 2020 BTC has gained almost 15x. It is remarkable in any standard. Even though BTC has made bigger moves in the past, we need to remember the weight is much bigger now in terms of value. Even if BTC plunges into a bear market now, it is still going to outperform any markets out there and at this point it is almost but certain there will be higher prices sometime in the future. Good luck out there.
Yorum:
50 day EMA held....off to the races again
