#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. 91000 - 100000 is the range and market is going back and forth in it. No deeper meaning to this since we have been in it for 3 weeks now, which means the market is in balance. We will likely see a breakout next week and both sides have equal chances as of now.
comment: 2024 closed at 93401, so my guess for the close was decent. Now bears need to start picking it up again and get a daily close below 90k. Since we are in a tight trading range, the market is in balance and we could also retest 108k before more downside. Nothing I am currently very interested in trading.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. Daily close below 90k is confirmation for the bears.
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls have going for them that we are in a trading range close to 100k. The problem for them is, the longer they can’t find acceptance above 100k, the more likely it becomes that we test down again. A daily close above 100k is what they need for probably a retest of the ath at 108k.
Invalidation is below 90k.
bear case: Bears still not doing enough. I start writing more for them once we have a daily close below 90k. I still expect the selling to accelerate below it but for now we are stuck at the highs. First target below 90k is the 50% retracement for the Trump rally at 88k. Below that the breakout retest 74k.
Invalidation is above 101k.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 100k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last weeks.
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. 91000 - 100000 is the range and market is going back and forth in it. No deeper meaning to this since we have been in it for 3 weeks now, which means the market is in balance. We will likely see a breakout next week and both sides have equal chances as of now.
comment: 2024 closed at 93401, so my guess for the close was decent. Now bears need to start picking it up again and get a daily close below 90k. Since we are in a tight trading range, the market is in balance and we could also retest 108k before more downside. Nothing I am currently very interested in trading.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. Daily close below 90k is confirmation for the bears.
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls have going for them that we are in a trading range close to 100k. The problem for them is, the longer they can’t find acceptance above 100k, the more likely it becomes that we test down again. A daily close above 100k is what they need for probably a retest of the ath at 108k.
Invalidation is below 90k.
bear case: Bears still not doing enough. I start writing more for them once we have a daily close below 90k. I still expect the selling to accelerate below it but for now we are stuck at the highs. First target below 90k is the 50% retracement for the Trump rally at 88k. Below that the breakout retest 74k.
Invalidation is above 101k.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 100k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last weeks.
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
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