current 4 hour candle attempting bearish breakout from bullflag?

22 Mar 2018

The bullflag that never ends seems to be decisively bearish right now and breaking downward. That's not to say in the 45 minutes left before the close of the current 4hour candle the bulls couldn't still find a way to carry us back up inside the bull flag once again...and even if they don't this flag has attempted so many fake breakouts already, that it's definitely wise to wait and see how the follow up 4 hour candle to this one acts. It's not an official breakout until this candle and the next candle close below the bottom trendline....If that is to occur (which probability favors right now) , then as you can see the red line will send us down to at least the 50SMA and otentially slightly below it. Hopefully not, as we want first and foremost to stay above the 50 MA from here on out. That pesky 100 MA just keeps rejecting our advances. For now I will once again remain neutral on the chart and also be hodling even though my bias leans towards the bearish outcome right now...I am totally prepared for another fake breakout should it occur, but just as prepared for a legitimate breakout this time as well. Currently on the 1day chart the 1 day Tline seems to be holding steady as suupport...we will see soon how long that can last....if this bearish breakout gets confirmed then it will likely dip under the 1day tline, but the 1 day tline could also help us revert course and head back upward as well.

22 Mar 2018

Not

you can see a big swell in bearish volume on this candle, the msot we've gotten in over 3 days so that's a sign that this could very well be a legitimate breakout this time and not a fake out...still another 30 minutes left to see whether or not the bulls can find a way to scare price action back into the flag though.

22 Mar 2018

Not

We currently have some bullish momentum going with the new 4 hour candle. A good sign but we are gonna need a lot more bullish volume to go with it to match/counteract the bearish volume from the previous candle....2 very important resistance level hurdles coming up...the first one being the green 50% fib retracement level at $8738, and the second one is the 4hr Tline(in yellow) currently at $8824. If we can't find away to overcome both and turn the Tline back into support during this candle, then the bearish breakdown will be confirmed...however if we can flip it to support then the bearish breakdown is just yet another fakeout from this mischievious troll of a bull flag. I will then rename it a trollflag.

22 Mar 2018

Not

on the first test of the 50% green fib line the current 4 hour candle has bounced slightly down from it confirming it as at least temporary resistance...would be encouraging to see us get above it on the retest but another rejection is slightly more probable.

22 Mar 2018

Not

my stop loss has now been triggered...there's 2 hours left in this candle and very unlikely it will rebound high enough to close back inside the bull flag. I will short with the intentions of entering back in right around the 50MA hoping we can rebound at that point.

22 Mar 2018

Not

the 100 sma on the 1 hour chart is trying desperately to maintain support but we just broke downward from another bear flag on the 1 hour and the projected target to fall from there is the same drop target as the breakdown target of the 4 hour bull flag