Bitcoin Daily Update (day 216)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If the daily candle can close below yesterday’s then it would be a breakdown of the trendline (green) and it would also be a red 2 below a red 1. That could be a good opportunity to build a short in the $6,400 - $6,500 range.” / Short BTC:USD from $6,474 and short ETH:USD from $225.20.
Patterns: Descending triangle / bear channel
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,350 | R: $6,495
BTCUSDSHORTS: Made higher low on daily and rallying. Expect ATH’ retest. ETHUSDLONGS appear to be forming a blow off top.
Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.29% | 26: -1.58% | Failed to make bullish cross, now I expect to see some divergence.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -2.1% | 128: -5.02%
Volume: Still waiting for spike as volume continues to decrease during consolidation.
FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619
Candlestick analysis: Pulling back from weekly hanging man.
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows strong level of support at $6,460. If we fall out of the cloud then expect that to become strong resistance. 12h cloud shows strong resistance at $6,548.
TD’ Sequential: 1d is on an R3 | 12h is on a R9 | 4h is on a G1 following a R8. 1h is one a G7.
Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.63% | 24h: -0.99% | 1w: - | 2w: -0.4% | 1m: -11.32%
Bollinger Bands: Closed below daily MA, expect at return to the bottom band at $6,282.
Trendline: 3 day bear trend outlined with red lines.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320
On Balance Volume: OBV’ has broken down support and continues to trend down.
ADX: Indicates upcoming volatility
Chaikin Money Flow: Daily is pulling back from being slightly overbought
RSI (30 setting): W: 48.82 | D: 47.08
Stoch: Trying to make bullish re cross on weekly.

Summary: Closely watching bear trend that is forming on the 1h chart to see if $6,500 will turn into resistance. If it does then the down trend should continue, and we might be able to finally get out of the god forsaken range. If $6,500 does not become resistance then expect the sideways action to continue for a few more days/weeks.

The 4h TD' Sequential just had a red 8 and the 12h is on a red 9. Those both indicate that we should bounce through $6,500 before continuing the move downward.

I have started to re enter my short positions and will continue using very tight stops. I sold $6,474 this morning and used a $6,501 stop loss. I shorted ETH:USD yesterday afternoon at $225.2 and have moved that stop loss to break even. I am focusing on maximizing my exposure while limiting my risk. To do this I am waiting for consolidation on the 10m and 1h chart. I place my sell orders towards the top of the consolidation zone and put my stop loss right above resistance.

I will continue to take these stabs in hopes to be fully positioned once the market makes it’s move. When we do break out of this range there will be very little time to get positioned and that’s why I am using a preemptive approach.