The next major bounce.
There is a lot going on in the next few weeks. Quite a few resistance lines on the way down (not all detailed here).
Where I perhaps differ from others is my thoughts on the next bounce.
The last bounce occurred around 6k. This was higher than the resistance setup from 12th November 2017. However, looking at the BTC:EUR charts, the bounce was bang on the resistance at €4700. In other words the main Dollar resistance has yet to be reached, and therefore neither has the bounce.
During discussions, its been suggested the idea of the Euro bounce may be valid, but will have taken the force out of a dollar bounce. This all depends on how the bots were set up, what the whales did, and how many of those set up for the dollar bounce lost their bottle and entered back in half way up the Euro bounce.
Additionally, a 50% retracement indicates a smaller uptrend may occur before hitting the buy zone, which again will take some power out of the main bounce.
However, all of these things may combine to slow the drop, extend the sideways movement and allow the buy zone to be closer to the edge of the general downward trend, thus increasing the potential of a breakout through the trend line BTC has been held under throughout 2018.
The daily RSI has bounced off its long term resistance (currently around 56%), heading back down. If it goes back to oversold and coincides with reaching the Dollar resistance, we have the makings of a decent bounce.
Further to this, the next Euro resistance is at €4400 (from 18th October), which rather conveniently at today's exchange rates is $5400. So, BTCEUR is due to bounce at exactly the same time as BTCUSD.
Lots to look at - thoughts & comments appreciated.
Where I perhaps differ from others is my thoughts on the next bounce.
The last bounce occurred around 6k. This was higher than the resistance setup from 12th November 2017. However, looking at the BTC:EUR charts, the bounce was bang on the resistance at €4700. In other words the main Dollar resistance has yet to be reached, and therefore neither has the bounce.
During discussions, its been suggested the idea of the Euro bounce may be valid, but will have taken the force out of a dollar bounce. This all depends on how the bots were set up, what the whales did, and how many of those set up for the dollar bounce lost their bottle and entered back in half way up the Euro bounce.
Additionally, a 50% retracement indicates a smaller uptrend may occur before hitting the buy zone, which again will take some power out of the main bounce.
However, all of these things may combine to slow the drop, extend the sideways movement and allow the buy zone to be closer to the edge of the general downward trend, thus increasing the potential of a breakout through the trend line BTC has been held under throughout 2018.
The daily RSI has bounced off its long term resistance (currently around 56%), heading back down. If it goes back to oversold and coincides with reaching the Dollar resistance, we have the makings of a decent bounce.
Further to this, the next Euro resistance is at €4400 (from 18th October), which rather conveniently at today's exchange rates is $5400. So, BTCEUR is due to bounce at exactly the same time as BTCUSD.
Lots to look at - thoughts & comments appreciated.
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