Where is the bottom in Bitcoin?

11 Haz 2018

There is only one way I know of to logically guesstimate where a bottom could be based on past price action. I believe bitcoin -0.19% is reverting to its 200 week mean average range which will be anywhere between $2500 - $5000 (probably somewhere in between). The time in which price reaches this range matters, as it has to correspond with the trend-lines, and/or orange and red moving averages as shown in the chart. The last ~80% drop (from peak to trough) lasted 419 days. It's extremely unlikely we reach near that number again... but it's the only number we could use to project a possible bottom. With that number or range in mind, it would mean a bottom sometime in late 2018 or early 2019 -- January 2019 if using the 419 day peak to trough as a metric, followed by a consolidation phase (in a bull market it can be considered an accumulation phase). We are still very much in a bull market looking at this picture from a distance (10 - 20 years).

I think the best strategy to try to buy cheap is to have resting orders sitting at specific prices. For me, they are $4200, and $3100. These are my weekly bids. I may have other orders depending on developing price action as we continue to watch the price unfold.

It's still possible to even break an all time high this year... but it seems unlikely to me. In my opinion, to have a sustainable run in the next 4 years toward 60k or 80k per coin, it would probably require more downside and longer term consolidation. I think we could bottom sometime in September 2018 based on the trend-lines drawn and where price should correspond with those trend-lines in terms of time.

8 Tem 2018

Not

The following chart image is not a prediction. But it is a reminder that anything is possible and nothing should be ruled out. Of all possibilities, I see a drawn out consolidation within this band occurring before any major rally.

5 Ara 2018

Not

We are now at the lower bound, 200 week (red) moving average level. If this area does not hold (crypto market cap of 100 billion) then $1200 - $1500 per BTC is the next stop ($15 billion crypto market cap).

5 Ara 2018

Not

For the record, I 100% see a VERY drawn out consolidation phase. You could absolutely forget about a bull market coming anytime soon.

30 May 2021

Not

I'm seeing a little bit of deja vu... will update with a new post

13 Haz 2022

Not

Deja vu is here now that we're nearly back at the 200week ma now. I don't see it holding perfectly since it's on everyone's radar. Likely to undercut it and chop around it for some time, scaring people into thinking it's breaking down. New highs likely still ahead