Continued down trend

I believe this down trend is just beginning, Expected the relief rally to happen, this is potentially the last opportunity to short above 9k for a while. I can see this touching 9240 but if this breaks the 4H 50 ema i would be willing to change to a more bullish stance, but until then I am bearish. Lets see how the stock market opens.

This trade has a risk/reward ratio of 3.5, therefore has to work out 22% of the time to yield a profit. I would estimate at around 33% probability (from backtesting).