Bitcoin's two options: Rapid recovery or roll over

14 May 2021

The chart is on the daily time frame but I have programed in the CM ultimate to have the 20 SMA on it, which is close enough to the 20 week EMA as to not matter. Both are very conventional timeframes to use but I prefer the 20 SMA because it is the baseline of the bollinger band (not show). Please see the linked ideas if you want to see more indicators.

Key Points
purple areas of investigation

• Trend line support and 20 week SMA coincide with the purple area bounce
  
• Consolidation lasted for about 2-3 weeks.
  
• On Balance Volume was below its 100 EMA
  [\list]
  
  Orange Areas
  • Occurs after purple
    
  • the trendline and 20w SMA act as area of resistance
    
  • On Balance Volume still under 100 EMA
    [\list]
    
    Must needs before I become a buyer again
    • OBV gets above the 100 EMA
      
    • Price action recovers rapidly get some white space between it and the 20 week SMA
      
    • Price action very quickly gets above the red resistance line.
      [\list]
      
      Out of everything in the post, if you want to simply everything to one key point, the price action needs to get above the red trendline. It is pretty simple.
      
      Other Implications
      The crypto market could be lulled into complacency of the next week or so as alts continue to make new highs as BTC chops sideways. I personally have a long on Tezos under the assumption that this could be a few weeks of sideway. If I am wrong I take a get stopped out on a calculated loss and I resume shorting almost everything crypto. If BTC recovers very quickly then alts might have a slowdown as BTC draws money away, especially form those that trade crypto/btc pairings. Very suppositional at this point