This should be fun to see how it plays out. The 30-week cycle low theory suggests that BTC has been forming significant lows roughly every 30 weeks throughout this upward cycle (since low of Nov 2022). So far, this pattern has remained intact. Further confluence would be the 50 week exponential moving average that has acted as strong support since breaking it in March 2023 (see purple line).
Looking ahead to 2025, if BTC does not establish a new weekly low below $78K next week (and barring any recession in the US which will cause panic selling and great buying opportunities), I expect BTC to continue trending upward within the rising channel, making new highs. Based on this structure, BTC could reach $180K by end of July/summer of 2025, which aligns with the top of the upward channel. This summer high would most likely align with previous 30 week cycles and peak in in the last 40% of the 30 weeks (so after June 25th), before experiencing a pullback in the summer 2025, marking the final low of the cycle year.
This summer pullback should align with the bottom of the up sloping channel and also a 30-week cycle low, with BTC dropping toward $125K—a level that also represents a 59% increase from the previous cycle low in late February. Historically, similar "trough to trough" growth patterns have occurred.
The anticipated $125K low should act as a final support level before retail momentum drives BTC into its final levels for this cycle. $250k would act as the target for the top of the channel and if this plays out as expected, BTC could see an overextension toward $352K, based on previous cycle trends. I will also share my idea on why $352k in another post.
I have also added on the chart a dotted yellow line tracking early 2024 BTC highs that connect through Dec 2024 highs that could also act as minor support and resistance in 2025. The first instance is most likely a breakout of BTC to a new all-time high that could wick up past $130k and sell off to close that week closer to $125k. Similar confluence appears for the summer sell off from $180k-$125k where the $160k range could act as short term support and resistance for those who are actively trading.
Regarding timing, I will also go further into detail in my next idea post, but channel range high of $250k could actually happen as soon as Sept 20th and the cycle top that could go as high as $352k could happen as late as December 19th. More to come on this. For now just wanted to share the data I have put together. DYOR, reduce risk, take profit!
Looking ahead to 2025, if BTC does not establish a new weekly low below $78K next week (and barring any recession in the US which will cause panic selling and great buying opportunities), I expect BTC to continue trending upward within the rising channel, making new highs. Based on this structure, BTC could reach $180K by end of July/summer of 2025, which aligns with the top of the upward channel. This summer high would most likely align with previous 30 week cycles and peak in in the last 40% of the 30 weeks (so after June 25th), before experiencing a pullback in the summer 2025, marking the final low of the cycle year.
This summer pullback should align with the bottom of the up sloping channel and also a 30-week cycle low, with BTC dropping toward $125K—a level that also represents a 59% increase from the previous cycle low in late February. Historically, similar "trough to trough" growth patterns have occurred.
The anticipated $125K low should act as a final support level before retail momentum drives BTC into its final levels for this cycle. $250k would act as the target for the top of the channel and if this plays out as expected, BTC could see an overextension toward $352K, based on previous cycle trends. I will also share my idea on why $352k in another post.
I have also added on the chart a dotted yellow line tracking early 2024 BTC highs that connect through Dec 2024 highs that could also act as minor support and resistance in 2025. The first instance is most likely a breakout of BTC to a new all-time high that could wick up past $130k and sell off to close that week closer to $125k. Similar confluence appears for the summer sell off from $180k-$125k where the $160k range could act as short term support and resistance for those who are actively trading.
Regarding timing, I will also go further into detail in my next idea post, but channel range high of $250k could actually happen as soon as Sept 20th and the cycle top that could go as high as $352k could happen as late as December 19th. More to come on this. For now just wanted to share the data I have put together. DYOR, reduce risk, take profit!
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.