BTC ... is this the END or the end of the correction?

13 Ağu 2018

Tough to be bullish about BTC nowadays. Those sweet 30% rallies in a 24h period seem like nothing but a daydream at this stage.
BTC (and alts), what happened to you? Futures sure rained on your parade.

Here's my latest thinking folks.

My last idea I suspected a drop and some sideways around the key support of 6800 ... well we dropped, but went right through 6800 like it was nothing. I've maintained that if we break 6800 to the downside, we will very likely go for a new low. We did hit close to 6k ... and now it seems there is some bull exhaustion. Back a few months ago, when we cracked 6k, the bears did it too soon, and people were not willing to rally behind them and support the short. Even though whales have power, they also need the market to support their moves. Dropping BTC too fast means that people aren't will to risk the short (too risky), and any sign of consolidation below 6k is almost sure to bring in buyers.

This time around they seemed to have learned from their mistake, and are taking it down slowly. Assuming they do this right ... there will be sideways consolidation for a little while, and that will do something important ... make some of the longs close out, and make bears anxious to get back in and rally behind a bear move (once everyone is convinced it won't go much higher).

So the red line I've plotted has some sideways action and then a new impulse down, based on an anticipated delay in the CBOE ETF decision. There are other ETF's being approved in late August and into September ... perhaps negative news on those ones will be the catalyst to precipitate the next impulse down.

On the other hand I am expecting a positive ETF decision to set off a major rally ... and hence the blue line.

So my thoughts are sideways, maybe bottom testing until the ETF decisions start to come in, and that decides whether 5700 - 6000 was the accumulation zone, or whether the big wigs want it in the 4000 to 5400 range.

My gut says red line ... there's some important trend lines that BTC will want to gravitate too around the 4500 to 5000 mark. A touch of those lines may send a message "this train's about to leave the station." I'm hearing more and more talks of miners switching off their machines, and also more and more talks of people bringing in fresh fiat, especially given some alt prices (NEO, OMG, EOS, ETH, etc) ... we would have killed to get these prices back in Jan. Welcome to the jungle ...

Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.

Do not use this information for financial, trading, investment decisions. For educational purposes only.

14 Ağu 2018

Not

This is dropping faster than I predicted. Bears have some real power, the whales had a good trick up their sleeves ... kill alts, bring down BTC, get alts into free fall below key support, kill market.

Here is an update. I see strong support converging on September 30 at 4500 ... day of CBOE ETF decision (if it isn't delayed again).

14 Ağu 2018

Not

New data in deserves an update. I'm also looking at the 2014 to 2015 fractal. I suspect we are around the May 2015 time frame now. There was a bull trap in 2015 followed by a final drop ... that drop would be equivalent to a bottom of 5400 today, but the support is different here. If we were to fall straight down to it in the next 24h, it sits at 3900 (you can see that dark green dashed line on the bottom right of my chart above ... that's the major support line). I don't think we'll go there in one shot, but rather take weeks ... may even with a small bull trap. September 30th that trend line coincides with major support at 4500. Coincidence that the date is also the CBOE ETF decision date by SEC? Wouldn't it be great for whales to get BTC cheap just before the decision, and then let it take off while they prepare to launch the ETF say Jan 2019 ... by that time BTC is 30k, and they can sell it into an ETF for that price (or higher), making 600% profit??

Anyhow, here's the latest adjustment which brings together EW, log trend, support zones, timing of news and fractals:

14 Ağu 2018

Not

If anyone is interested in understanding my assumptions in regards to the 2014/2015 fractal analysis ... please see this chart:

16 Ağu 2018

Not

A more focused update to predicted movements over next couple of days. So far we are completing a text book ABC correction, after the drop to 5858 (bitfinex). Based on probability, I expect this ABC to complete either at 6800-6850 where there is a tonne of resistance, or possibly with a wave C extension, we could reach around 7150 - 7200. My guess at this stage. All a risk, obviously, and especially with manipulation ... for me ... I have some longs ... will think about exiting if we go up further. At this stage, if it doesn't go up further, I'd rather hold the longs and accumulate more when we drop again. Why would I hold longs ... well, that same manipulation can mean we go much higher 7800 ... and what a fool I'd feel like if I had sold at 6800. At some stage you have to decide what's a good sale range and what's a good buy range. There will be a grey, do not trade zone in between. So as long as we are in the GREY range ... I would simply focus on accumulation at GOOD prices ... wait for them, or distribution at good prices ... wait for them.

23 Ağu 2018

Not

OK guys! Here's the latest ... seems like we completed WAVE A of the chart I posted above on August 14th. This has been my main chart for the past couple of weeks, and I've adjusted it here and there, as new data comes in. I had to step away from charting on anything less than the daily, as the subwaves are a mess, to say the least. We get clarity when we go to the daily time frame. Here I look at EW theory and I see we completed a 3 wave (ABC) for WAVE A ... this is indicative of a flat correction, which means after B is finished, C won't go much higher than A finished. I've also looked at the ichi clouds, and where it will act as resistance, and also take note of the cloud twist. I expect us to get a TK cross in the next few days, which could catalyze wave C up ... ideally I'd like that to hit the major log trend line which has controlled the peaks since April ... that's at 7700 to 7800 ... but I don't think the bulls have the strength to take it there. Seems like a higher chance that we stop at the bottom of the ichi cloud around 71XX. This is what my main idea is based on.

However, note that there are others saying we are in consolidation and will soon have another major impulse down. In the end both interpretations point to the same thing ... 4.5k to 5k BTC. The question is do we get a quick rally up first, to fuel a major market short, or will it just head straight down from here.

Of course, there's another theory that whales are just accumulating from 6400 down ... and there's evidence of that. Buy orders are stacked below 6400 and someone is eating up all these shorts ... but I doubt we will soon be ready for a rally ... so the other option is we just sit in the 5700 to 6400 range for MONTHS to allow big/mega whales to accumulate ... and then they take it up again in a major bull run.

Putting my mind frame in the brain of a whale ... and betting on SEC delaying the CBOE decision ... I'd say, the do a short squeeze (shorts on bitfinex close to all time high), distribute at 7200 to 7800, then take here down to 4500 to 5000, hold it below 6k for a long time (months?) to accumulate once last time, then take her up and get the price to the point where they can sell at 7x what they paid into an ETF that will launch next year. Whew! Someone's going to record a documentary on BTC one day.