btc 2 scenarios

Here is my view on btc. As btc follows path similar to last bull cycle (2016-2017) i find it very interesting and although i dont prefer similarites in stocks i think that in crypto they are quite often. Well, you can find what i have been following down in related ideas.
So i think there is 65-70% chances btc is in bull market. In bull market we could expect to go 1000% up..That is enough for me...it is great reward-risk ratio!
Now i have 2 counts...My primary count is red..i think btc will go to 17,8-18k and then fall to 15-13 k next week (to 21 weekly ema).
Alternative count is it will make another high before that correction.

Kind regards!