BTC/USD: What is Going On?

Several themes are at play right now, which contributed to a selloff across risk assets last week. Influenced by political shenanigans (tariffs) and the Bybit exchange breach, this sent Bitcoin (BTC) 17.5% lower versus the US dollar (USD) by the close of trading on Friday.

Monthly Chart: Room to Explore Deeper Waters


There is not much to talk about on the monthly chart except to remind ourselves that last year wrapped up rejecting the underside of a 100% projection ratio at US$106,610. Despite January's gain (9.0%), February concluded considerably lower and, as far as I can see, demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until support from US$68,926.

Daily Chart: Dragonfly Doji Ahead of 200-Day SMA


On the daily timeframe, the latest reveals that with the aid of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) delivering resistance at US$97,092, price ruptured the lower edge of a range that has been in play since December 2024 between US$91,591 and US$108,396. This breakout led BTC/USD to within touching distance of the 200-day SMA at US$76,811 on Friday, finishing the week in the shape of a dragonfly doji (a bullish candlestick signal similar to a hammer pattern). While this candle pattern/SMA combination (and neighbouring daily support from US$73,575) could trigger a recovery (profit taking) on the daily timeframe, the room to discover deeper waters on the monthly timeframe toward support at US$68,926 places bulls in a questionable position at current levels and may see daily flow push southbound. Consequently, should the major crypto pair retest the underside of the daily range (see red arrows) before hitting the noted daily supports (and monthly support), this may be viewed as a sell-on-rally scenario.

Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill