In this analysis I want to take a look at the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, plotted on the 3-day chart of BTC.
Historically, golden crosses (50-period crossing over 200-period) has always officially signaled the end of the bear market, meaning that there's no new lows to be made. This would mean that 15,500$ was the low of the current bear market and that a new bull-cycle has started. The blue and white line haven't crossed yet, but it won't take more than a couple of weeks.
I'm aware that this analysis has missed the bottom, but that's often the case with lagging indicators such as moving averages. This analysis is a confirmation of another analysis I made back in January where I argued that the bear-market bottom was most likely in. See below.
On the other hand, macro conditions are now vastly different compared to the other two golden crosses, so a new low is not to be excluded.
Nevertheless, I think that the most likely scenario would be that 15,500$ was the bottom and that we're going to trade within a 20,000-40,000 range for another year or so.
Do you think the bottom is in? Are we going to make new lows? Explain your thoughts in the comments 🙏
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