bitcoin swing - MA crossing

Hi guys
As you know, Bitcoin is swinging between $ 41,000 and $ 28,000, which is considered resistance and support.
But the main question is whether Bitcoin will go out of this range, ascending or descending?
Two possible scenarios
Scenario 1: Bitcoin will break up the resistance of $ 41,000 and rise to $ 72,000 as the first target
Scenario 2: Bitcoin will break down the $ 28,000 support and fall to about $ 20,000 as the first target
I find the second scenario more likely.
My idea is that: We can see 7 and 30 MA crossing at weekly timeframes, which amplifies the chance of the second scenario.