Elliott Wave Analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

17 Haz

Elliott Wave Analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Wave (I) and Wave (II) on Weekly Time Frame

Starting from the beginning of the Bitcoin chart, the first significant move up in price has been labeled as Supercycle wave (I). This wave represented the initial major bull run in Bitcoin's history, culminating in a peak, followed by a corrective phase, labeled as Supercycle wave (II). This corrective wave ended at the low observed in November 2022.

- Supercycle Wave (I): This wave exhibited impulsive characteristics with five clear subdivisions (waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).
- Supercycle Wave (II): This was a corrective wave, taking the form of an ABC correction, and concluded in November 2022.

Wave (III) on Weekly Time Frame

Since the low of November 2022, Bitcoin has been unfolding Supercycle wave (III). This wave is expected to be a major bullish phase, often characterized by strong upward momentum and significant price increases. Wave (III) typically shows the following characteristics:

- Strength and Momentum: Wave (III) is usually the longest and most powerful wave in a five-wave cycle.
- High Volume: Accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating strong market interest.
- Impulsive Nature: This wave should subdivide into five smaller waves on a lower time frame, confirming its impulsive nature.

Subdivisions of Wave (III) on Daily Time Frame

Within the context of Wave (III) on the weekly time frame, we are currently analyzing the subdivisions on the daily time frame. The current structure suggests the following:

- Wave ((1)) of Wave (III): This wave is unfolding and subdividing into five smaller waves.
- Wave (1), (2), and (3) of ((1)): These waves have been completed.
- Wave (4) of ((1)): Recently completed around April 2024.
- Wave (5) of ((1)): Expected to breach the all-time high to confirm the start.

Current Status and Invalidation

- Current Status: Bitcoin is potentially in Wave (5) of ((1)) of Wave (III), which needs to breach the all-time high for confirmation.
- Invalidation Point: If the low of April 2024 (where Wave (4) finished) is breached, this would invalidate the current count. It would suggest that Wave (4) is still unfolding, possibly as a double correction.

Characteristics and Structure of Wave (III)

1. Wave ((1)): Typically the smallest wave but should be identifiable as a five-wave move.
2. Wave ((2)): A corrective wave, usually retracing between 50% to 61.8% of Wave ((1)).
3. Wave ((3)): Often the largest and most powerful wave, usually extends to 161.8% of Wave ((1)).
4. Wave ((4)): Another corrective wave, typically shallow, often retracing 23.6% to 38.2% of Wave ((3)).
5. Wave ((5)): Completes the impulse sequence, may extend or truncate but should be a five-wave move.

Conclusion

The Elliott Wave analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) indicates a bullish market ahead, driven by the development of Supercycle wave (III). This analysis is based on the assumption that the low of April 2024 will hold, confirming the end of Wave (4) of ((1)) and the start of Wave (5) of ((1)). If this low is breached, the market might still be in Wave (4), unfolding as a double correction.

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My studies are for educational purpose only.
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RK💕

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