BTC Analysis
Güncellendi
This is not a Trade, just a journal. Currently I am in BTC, LTC and several alts with no leveraged position.
Weekly:
Market is still showing signs of sideways action with bullish trends beginning to develop.
My MA bias criteria currently shows a bullish cross on the weekly with price above the cross, but it is a cross at a downward slope, so only a medium bullish cross, still enough for a bullish bias based on MA.
Long term weekly chart shows a failure last time MA's crossed bullish. Not predictive, but worth noting if entering any bullish position:
PA Bias is also bullish following a price channel breakout 2 weeks ago, and consistently higher low and high closes on the last few candles + (presumably) the current weekly will as well. Will be watching for the close tomorrow to confirm. Once issue with PA bullish bias is the overall market consolidation pattern though: Higher Lows and Lower Highs on weekly closes over the past 4 months.
Price is approaching strong resistance again around 4000-4100 where it has failed several times. A weekly candle must close above 4100 for a sustained bullish trend to develop. No weekly candle has done so over the past 4 months. Wether a new bull trend is about to develop or bull trap is about to occur Price action should push above 4100 soon. The 4100-4200 region has been a bull trap 4 times in the past 4 months, so be aggressive with stops on any long positions. A push above 4200 would create a large amount of liquidity for shorts.
I have an interest into moving into cash at the 4100 level and only reentering if I see strong bullish signs on daily and weekly charts. Will only take leveraged shorts at that level after a large short liquidation with little follow through from bulls, and a drop back into the area. Will be watching for signs of traps and weakness above 4000.
Overall sideways action and consolidation still highly probable with potential for BTC to develop a longer term sideways channel. Impossible to know, just a possibility I am keeping in mind to temper my bullish/bearish biases.
Obv rising sharply, so I am expecting a drop on it soon to retest a previous peak. This translates to a red weekly candle within the next 1-4 weeks which will test or break the, in my opinion, important support around $3620 - retail stops are likely right below this level an represent a high liquidity area. The VPVR supports this idea in my opinion.
For a real painful stop hunt and liquidity grab price could wick into the (marked) 3500-3540 area and still make a higher low on the weekly. That would be the most likely area for a strong bear trap if one is to occur.
Long term trend is still technically bearish, however I see no reason to be overly bearish short term based on the weekly chart.
Daily chart:
MA bias - My daily MA system shows bearish cross and MAs, but with price above. So no real signal unless price gets back below the MAs, then bearish bias.
PA bias - Weakly bearish
Daily looks like a standard DOW-SFP developing. Confirmed on a new daily close below $3698. Price just pushed into an resistance area (marked) from before the sharp move up and fall (bull trap), wicked above and is now below with daily close soon. A close below that has a high probability of confirming a downward move before the 4100 test. However, many short stops are likely above that block, so worth keeping an eye on going into the daily and weekly closes. A daily close above 3940 invalidates bearish bias on daily.
Daily shows a high probability entry area in the mid 3500's (marked) and as mentioned the weekly also shows a similar area, so this is where I will look for leveraged longs, if the opportunity arises.
My daily mechanical system "DumpLoad" closed its previous long for a 6%+ gain if you followed nothing but the signal. I closed it earlier as mentioned in Discord. but has signaled another long (I have not taken on leverage, but am in the market with cash as mentioned). Based on this and the Price channel signal on March 5th, I have a spot BTC position. During consolidations the DumpLoad system can give false signals, but always nails large moves (you can see some write ups on it in my previous posts labeled "Mechanical System"
OBV had a nice bullish breakout and retest. if it can hold that breakout level as support BTC has a much higher probability of staying bullish.
Overall no strong signals on the daily, but today's close could change that. Will post an update after it closes and again tomorrow after the weekly close.
Areas of interest based on current market structure mentioned above.
This is not financial advice. These are my personal trades and journals. All material provided for educational purposes only.
Weekly:
Market is still showing signs of sideways action with bullish trends beginning to develop.
My MA bias criteria currently shows a bullish cross on the weekly with price above the cross, but it is a cross at a downward slope, so only a medium bullish cross, still enough for a bullish bias based on MA.
Long term weekly chart shows a failure last time MA's crossed bullish. Not predictive, but worth noting if entering any bullish position:
PA Bias is also bullish following a price channel breakout 2 weeks ago, and consistently higher low and high closes on the last few candles + (presumably) the current weekly will as well. Will be watching for the close tomorrow to confirm. Once issue with PA bullish bias is the overall market consolidation pattern though: Higher Lows and Lower Highs on weekly closes over the past 4 months.
Price is approaching strong resistance again around 4000-4100 where it has failed several times. A weekly candle must close above 4100 for a sustained bullish trend to develop. No weekly candle has done so over the past 4 months. Wether a new bull trend is about to develop or bull trap is about to occur Price action should push above 4100 soon. The 4100-4200 region has been a bull trap 4 times in the past 4 months, so be aggressive with stops on any long positions. A push above 4200 would create a large amount of liquidity for shorts.
I have an interest into moving into cash at the 4100 level and only reentering if I see strong bullish signs on daily and weekly charts. Will only take leveraged shorts at that level after a large short liquidation with little follow through from bulls, and a drop back into the area. Will be watching for signs of traps and weakness above 4000.
Overall sideways action and consolidation still highly probable with potential for BTC to develop a longer term sideways channel. Impossible to know, just a possibility I am keeping in mind to temper my bullish/bearish biases.
Obv rising sharply, so I am expecting a drop on it soon to retest a previous peak. This translates to a red weekly candle within the next 1-4 weeks which will test or break the, in my opinion, important support around $3620 - retail stops are likely right below this level an represent a high liquidity area. The VPVR supports this idea in my opinion.
For a real painful stop hunt and liquidity grab price could wick into the (marked) 3500-3540 area and still make a higher low on the weekly. That would be the most likely area for a strong bear trap if one is to occur.
Long term trend is still technically bearish, however I see no reason to be overly bearish short term based on the weekly chart.
Daily chart:
MA bias - My daily MA system shows bearish cross and MAs, but with price above. So no real signal unless price gets back below the MAs, then bearish bias.
PA bias - Weakly bearish
Daily looks like a standard DOW-SFP developing. Confirmed on a new daily close below $3698. Price just pushed into an resistance area (marked) from before the sharp move up and fall (bull trap), wicked above and is now below with daily close soon. A close below that has a high probability of confirming a downward move before the 4100 test. However, many short stops are likely above that block, so worth keeping an eye on going into the daily and weekly closes. A daily close above 3940 invalidates bearish bias on daily.
Daily shows a high probability entry area in the mid 3500's (marked) and as mentioned the weekly also shows a similar area, so this is where I will look for leveraged longs, if the opportunity arises.
My daily mechanical system "DumpLoad" closed its previous long for a 6%+ gain if you followed nothing but the signal. I closed it earlier as mentioned in Discord. but has signaled another long (I have not taken on leverage, but am in the market with cash as mentioned). Based on this and the Price channel signal on March 5th, I have a spot BTC position. During consolidations the DumpLoad system can give false signals, but always nails large moves (you can see some write ups on it in my previous posts labeled "Mechanical System"
OBV had a nice bullish breakout and retest. if it can hold that breakout level as support BTC has a much higher probability of staying bullish.
Overall no strong signals on the daily, but today's close could change that. Will post an update after it closes and again tomorrow after the weekly close.
Areas of interest based on current market structure mentioned above.
This is not financial advice. These are my personal trades and journals. All material provided for educational purposes only.
Not
Nothing really changed by the daily close. Mild bearish bias until price clears that resistance zone.
A few decent long opportunity areas is price drops from here
Sitting in cash until price clears that 3950 level isn't a terrible idea either...
Considering a 1x short and attempting to buy longs at daily S/R zones.
Not
Weekly Close did not change the thoughts above. I opened a short hedge based on the daily bearish bias. It is worth 2x my account and is open with 3x leverage. Total risk to my trading account is about 3%. Not
Many coins have begun to give bullish bias/trend signals on the weekly charts. This is not a common occurrence. Bullish trend signals on the weekly almost always precede large moves. The exception is when the market is entering extended periods of sideways action, but even then - significant opportunities generally follow weekly trend signals. LTC weekly for reference:
Not
Previous low risk protective short from daily time frame was stopped out.Another weekly close, and other than being at/near resistance there is nothing particularly bearish. Still no interest in high risk shorts for the moment. But reducing some long risk/exposure is a good idea here.
Will exit into cash if 2915 area is penetrated. It's a quick exit area for me and price action back above that MA is a quick enter.
Weekly is strong, but some pullback is inevitable. A breakdown below 3600 would invalidate my bullish bias.
Not
Weekly close as a doji is not great, but weekly bias is still technically Bullish as each week close has been HH. I like the daily here for a possible bullish retest of previous higher volume area.
Longed 2x account value at 3881 and have additional orders in the 3850 area.
Stopping out if we go below 3800. Watching the daily close and would like to see it above 3900 for bullish thesis. Below is questionable. 1.5 hours to daily close.
Not
Position has grown on dips and is still open. ETH long closed at 171, which tripled total value of account, and hedge short opened at 174.37. Stop at highs.Weekly close at resistance was a trick and cascading short liquidations and closures pushed price up over 20% at the weekly open. OI was high and rising before hand. Retest of an old resistance with multiple tests already. Bitmex was Strongly bearish at resistance (based on funding). Rising price+rising OI.
Now the first major resistances above will be the meme box from the bull trap after the breakdown from 6k.
All the PA traders will be looking to short this level. If it hits before a retest of the breakout, I will hedge short there as well.
True resistance is the old weekly lows above 6k (orange is weekly low, grey is daily). Daily level lines up with old support from bull market 2017. Will be watching those areas closely for signals.
Green R/S flip zone is the most bullish retest area. If price retests and has a strong reaction here continued bullish momentum is certain.
Weekly resistance from breakout (green horizontals) are still a bullish retest area, but if a retest of those levels happen anytime soon, it will not be bullish. Based on the strength of reaction on this breakout I would be surprised to see 4100 anytime soon, if ever. Market can change my mind of course.
Weekly signals/indicators are all strongly bullish, though some consolidation/pullback will be necessary.
Weekly Mex:
Daily Mex:
Weekly Stamp:
Daily Stamp:
Feragatname
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