Double top on 4 hr? End of bull run?

27 May

The 4-hour chart shows a clear double top formation, accompanied by diminishing volume as we approach the end of May. The old saying "sell in May and walk away" suggests a high probability of a retracement down to previous support levels, indicating the potential end of this bull run. Historically, bull runs often conclude around this time (@585 days so far), and while it is possible that a new all-time high of $12,800 could be reached, retail interest is dwindling. The charts indicate that profit-taking is beginning to occur.

While institutional buying is currently propping up the price, it raises the question of how long this can last. A significant proportion of holders are already in profit, making this a good exit point to prepare for the next bear cycle and to accumulate more assets. Additionally, with the DXY (US Dollar Index) being low, a recovery in the DXY coupled with a drop in Bitcoin's value could significantly reduce the realized profits for Bitcoin holders.

The RSI and NUPL are high, and with the number of BTC longs decreasing, it indicates low confidence in further upside.

28 May

İşlem aktif

The pattern remains active, but there are further signs of weakness coupled with GOB (greed, overconfidence, and belief), which is creating the opposite of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). Despite a broader accumulation of Bitcoin (BTC), we are still not seeing the trading volumes needed on exchanges to drive prices higher. Institutions should proceed with caution at these levels, as potential short-term losses over the next 12-18 months could exceed 60%.

Although MicroStrategy is acquiring more BTC, this could pose a long-term weakness for Bitcoin, as we need wider distribution rather than having a few large holders (whales) controlling vast amounts. This cycle, BTC would benefit from a healthy correction to shake out weaker hands and rebuild support, ideally from the $40,000 level.

Remember the saying if you are not a buyer you should be a seller.