Waiting for the trend reversal to be confirmed or refuted

22 May 2023

During the weekend, Bitcoin's value slipped under the $27,000 mark. Despite that, the overall trading environment was quiet and without any significant technical developments that we could point to on Bitcoin’s chart. Because of that, we just continue to wait patiently for our thesis to be confirmed or refuted. To confirm the thesis about Bitcoin reversing short-term/medium-term trends (and finding increasingly more resistance when attempting to reclaim $31,000), we would like to see it drop below $25,800. Contrarily, to refute this proposition, Bitcoin would have to break above $27,666 (and then continue testing the resistance between $28,000 and $28,500). As for our general stance, it remains unchanged. We continue to think that the past six months of Bitcoin’s rally merely represent the most deceitful bear market rally up to date. With that assessment, we maintain price targets of $15,000 and $13,000.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

25 May 2023

Not

Overnight, Bitcoin dropped to $25,878 before rebounding slightly. We continue to wait for the breakout.