BTCUSD: How Indecisive Price Action Reveals Strength.

8 Şub 2018

BTCUSD update: Bullish momentum is building off of the 8171 to 4953 support zone. A break above 8427 and close will signal that the current bearish leg is complete. The next structure to anticipate is the shallow higher low formation.

What indicates strength on this chart is the previous candle which is not obvious to the casual observer. Price made it as high as 8488, which does not count as a break of the 8427 resistance because it did not close decisively above. The strength is represented by the pin bar close followed by an immediate retest of the 8171 support zone boundary.

How is this strong? Aren't bearish pin bars a sign of weakness? It all depends on the context of the situation. In this case, the bearish pin bar did not result in a break of the candle low, instead price pushes back up into resistance almost immediately relative to this time frame. That coupled with the fact that price is coming out of a major support zone makes for a stronger bullish argument.

IF there is a pull back and another bearish test, I would watch for the 7K level to hold as a minor support for a higher low. I believe this situation is less likely, but something to be aware of. IF the current strength stays intact, what is more likely is a pair of spinning tops or indecision candles which I would view as a shallow higher low, followed by a solid push through the 8427 level.

In summary, barring any negative catalyst, this is an area to consider putting on longs that is not as aggressive as buying into a market that is pushing lows. The more conservative play would be to buy when a clear higher low formation appears. The reference point for risk would be the 6600 area which is based on a proportion of the current minor bullish swing. IF this leg stays intact, the 9887 to 10636 zone is the next likely resistance target. Just like a vertical market reinforces boldness, a very weak market reinforces caution and fear. This is not a time to be fearful. Temper your risk and your aggressiveness through careful sizing, and/or basic price formations to justify a larger time frame position. What will protect you from another adverse move is your management of risk, not waiting for the perfect moment to enter.

Questions and comments welcome.