#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Really bad for the bulls that we now have 3 big daily bear bars closing on their lows and we are making new lows below 98k. A measured move down brings us exactly to the January low 89k and I do think bears are heavily favored to get it. Bulls have tried 2 weeks to print 110k and failed again to find more buyers above 105k.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls failed two weeks to get above 110k. Another huge rejection for them. For now we have to expect buyers to appear around 90k again but other than that, bulls have nothing before that.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Bears took control of the market again on late Friday and we are now below 98k. We have no bigger support until 93k. We are in a 3 month trading range and as much as I would love to see this crash down to 70k, it’s unlikely that we break strongly below the range. At least for now. So downside will probably be limited again to 88k / 90k and if bears are strong, they would keep it below 97k to setup a big second leg down.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Nothing
comment: Really bad for the bulls that we now have 3 big daily bear bars closing on their lows and we are making new lows below 98k. A measured move down brings us exactly to the January low 89k and I do think bears are heavily favored to get it. Bulls have tried 2 weeks to print 110k and failed again to find more buyers above 105k.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls failed two weeks to get above 110k. Another huge rejection for them. For now we have to expect buyers to appear around 90k again but other than that, bulls have nothing before that.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Bears took control of the market again on late Friday and we are now below 98k. We have no bigger support until 93k. We are in a 3 month trading range and as much as I would love to see this crash down to 70k, it’s unlikely that we break strongly below the range. At least for now. So downside will probably be limited again to 88k / 90k and if bears are strong, they would keep it below 97k to setup a big second leg down.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Nothing
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.