the midwit perspective

28 Kas

The +4std and the -2std iq crowd are currently shaking hands in agreement that the cycle is right translated and will top in Nov-Dec 2025.

These people are most probably correct, however...

Here's the +1std iq (midwit) take:

last top to bottom was left translated by over a year

• 117 months from Dec 2017 top to Mar 2020 bottom
  
• 52 months from Nov 2021 top to Nov 2022 bottom
  

last bottom to top was left translated by 35 weeks

• 122 months from Aug 2015 bottom to Dec 2017 top
  
• 87 months from the Mar 2020 bottom to the Nov 2021 cycle top
  

If we were to see the same type of left translation of 35-60 months after the Nov 2022 bottom, we would have seen the top already between Jul 2024 and Dec 2024 meaning either:

December 2024 could still be the December of dreams


or

99.9k was the left translated top in Nov 2024 and we're about to enter the downtrend part of the cycle..

..OR..


it's right translated and is going to top next Nov.

p.s. just to validate my credentials here as a midwit, I meant to use the btcusd coinbase chart but accidentally used bitfinex and didn't want to redraw all the lines.

Happy Thanksgiving