Another Battle won by Bulls. But will Bulls Win War?
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The bulls have successfully pushed through 6500 with easy. It was actually an ascending wedge (purple wedge with purple arrowed price objective) that broke out to the upside, which surprised me, I knew there was a possibility of that, however, they are most often a bearish continuation pattern, so I was holding my tongue for a moment with a higher expectation of it going down and then bouncing up once again with greater strength but instead it just broke upwards. Currently, I have placed 20%, 16000, of my free capital at the bottom of the right shoulder in anticipatory buying with tight stops, and there is a lot of anticipatory buying happening now that people feel comfortable that bitcoin has passed the 6500 levels, however, I felt more comfortable with it lower, and eating a loss than taking a risk above 6500.
The buy pressure is increasing, and as you can see in the bottom oscillator, Chaikin Money Flow, more money is currently moving into bitcoin, and this can be seen across multiple exchanges which is a good thing. There is a lot of anticipatory buying, which is forming a really strong bull flag. There will most likely be a move to 6850, and if bitcoin can break out of that neckline on high volume which is to be suspect of at this point because of the increasing volume as bitcoin rises in price, then the price objective for the inverse head and shoulder pattern is roughly 7900 (orange arrow), just under the trendline (purple descending line in top right hand corner) for the descending triangle. A breakout above this trendline would confirm a double bottom and it would mean that the bear market is over. However, if bitcoin fails to breakout of any of these levels we are either going to move sideways or downwards (most likely downwards) denoted by the blue arrows. In addition, depending on the volume of the breakout of the inverse head and shoulder, I suspect that it is completely possible, given enough volume, that bitcoin blows through that trendline given how close it is to the price objective and a head and shoulder pattern hits its price objective roughly 85% of the time, but given how strong the bears are at that trendline the battling could be fierce and it would be the battle that decides the war.
Key points to take away:
1.) Anticipatory buying occurring, gives bulls a strong base to test 6850.
2.) A breakout above 6850 would mean a test of the descending triangle from January 2018.
3) Any breakout the descending triangle would mean a double bottom trend reversal.
Trade smart, Hedge Risk, and Make some money!
Previous Analysis:
The buy pressure is increasing, and as you can see in the bottom oscillator, Chaikin Money Flow, more money is currently moving into bitcoin, and this can be seen across multiple exchanges which is a good thing. There is a lot of anticipatory buying, which is forming a really strong bull flag. There will most likely be a move to 6850, and if bitcoin can break out of that neckline on high volume which is to be suspect of at this point because of the increasing volume as bitcoin rises in price, then the price objective for the inverse head and shoulder pattern is roughly 7900 (orange arrow), just under the trendline (purple descending line in top right hand corner) for the descending triangle. A breakout above this trendline would confirm a double bottom and it would mean that the bear market is over. However, if bitcoin fails to breakout of any of these levels we are either going to move sideways or downwards (most likely downwards) denoted by the blue arrows. In addition, depending on the volume of the breakout of the inverse head and shoulder, I suspect that it is completely possible, given enough volume, that bitcoin blows through that trendline given how close it is to the price objective and a head and shoulder pattern hits its price objective roughly 85% of the time, but given how strong the bears are at that trendline the battling could be fierce and it would be the battle that decides the war.
Key points to take away:
1.) Anticipatory buying occurring, gives bulls a strong base to test 6850.
2.) A breakout above 6850 would mean a test of the descending triangle from January 2018.
3) Any breakout the descending triangle would mean a double bottom trend reversal.
Trade smart, Hedge Risk, and Make some money!
Previous Analysis:
Not
This is just a reminder, however, there is a 15% (17% to be exact) probability that bitcoin will FAIL to hit its price objective, as head and shoulders are extremely reliable, however, it did hit a strong point of resistance, so understand that there road to 7900 may turn into a choppy road (at least not a smooth as the strong powerful break out that we have experienced). The last note is that a significant breakout above 8000 with a similar volume profile is needed for the double bottom reversal to be completed.For those who missed their opportunity to enter at this point, I will be publishing an educational idea on trading a head and shoulder, both tops and bottoms.
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