U.S. Bond Yields and Why I Closed My Shorts

7 Mar 2021

tl;dr there is no strong fundamental reason for bond yields to go up, bitcoin will rally

As of publishing,

US10 bond yields: 1.47%
US inflation: 1.40%

Reasons for rising bond yields/inflation

• Re-opening U.S. economy via easing COVID-19 lockdowns would stimulate consumer spending, therefore inflation should go up
  
• Because bonds have been taking a nose dive
  
• Speculators dumping bonds as they are now perceived as risk > gain
  

Reasons against rising bond yields/inflation:

• A low rate world is beneficial towards economic stimulus, encouraging consumers to take on loans, or spend more to help businesses
  
• The current 2021 U.S. Administration will be airdropping $1400 tokens -- correction, $1400 USD. Would you assume this would help the economy? I assume not. Take a look at fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT. This shows the % of funds that the average person spends towards savings or capital markets (stocks). I don't see much local economic stimulus; rather digital stimulus. This does not benefit small businesses. There is also the fact that stimulus will be used to pay overdue debt. It is helpful, but it will not cause inflation.
  

*Sorry, this was half-baked but I had to get it out there.

5% would be a range buster or a good target to TP


8hr rounding bottom

8 Mar 2021

Not

So close to 52. Like a golf ball bouncing out of the hole.

Prime real estate for a "100x make it or break whole portfolio short for a -5% leg down no wicks position" or reduce long

8 Mar 2021

Not

~4% down on bitcoin, if this doesn't round bottom, it's cooked. Can't find a reason for yield to run up at this moment other than reduced JGB purchasing