***Most publicly traded markets (stocks, commodities, crypto, & forex) rarely rebound to ATHs after a bear market/capitulation event without first printing a significant correction following the asset's first bullish Macro leg up -- Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci principles, cyclical patterns, market fractals, and fundamental factors currently at play offer us clues to a few potential paths that BTC may take in the coming months.
If December 2023 ends up being BTC's local top, a pullback to $22-24k would represent a 0.236 Fib level correction from current levels ($42-45k) -- a commonly observed post-bear market/bullish Elliott Wave 1 (impulse) to Wave 2 (corrective) pattern. As long as Wave 2 doesn't retrace below the beginning of Wave 1, then Wave 3, Wave 5, or both (likely the case here*) will be parabolic, pumping BTC & alt-coin markets to new ATHs in 2024/2025.
While such a correction would be painful for many in the short to mid-term, a significant pullback would fundamentally align with current "sell the news" BTC ETF rhetoric, historically observed pre-halving corrections/post-halving parabolic bull markets (see week of March 9, 2020*), and would also send us down into BTC's most recently formed Macro bottom trending support line (the big green line with the highest pitch - largest angle relative to the horizontal axis*) for a 3rd & final time -- a callsign of the beginning of past cycles' largest parabolic moves (EWT Waves 3 & 5, split by a smaller corrective Wave 4) and strong confirmation of the coming pump to new ATHs in 2024/2025 ($110-160k).
That said, predominantly bullish market sentiment/current fundamentals around a potential US Spot BTC ETF approval in January simply cannot be ignored -- given the high anticipation of the looming ETF decisions/assumed approvals on Jan. 10, 2024 + the opportunity for further speculation in the meantime, it’s more probable that we’ll (at least) see a short-term pump before the ETF announcement vs starting a slow grind lower now. If an ETF approval is surprisingly denied or even delayed another, BTC would likely see a significant pullback - perhaps as low as $30-34k. If ETFs are approved as many are expecting, bullish reactions could push BTC into the $47-52k range for some period of time.
If this happens, many crypto traders who've been in the space for 1-2 cycles would likely take a "sell the news" approach in this range and expect to buy back lower after the initial hype of the approval wears off. Price correcting from there would also resemble a higher magnitude fractal of BTC’s bullish price action from March, which many crypto traders would take note of and likely use in their trading decisions. Depending on location/country of citizenship, veteran traders (3+ cycles) may do the same, with the majority hedging for different outcomes via perps/options + other potential methods on & off-chain. The newest generation (this being their first cycle) will likely just HODL to the moon (or the bottom) with OG long-term BTC maxis.
If whales/HNWIs + an army of retail degens react euphorically to the ETF news in January (not completely out of the question), BTC could rip higher to $58-60k -- this is where I would expect "smart money" to start taking profits though and would likely initiate a correction back to current levels (low-to-mid $40ks) before the next Macro leg up and the REAL bull begins 🥂🚀
If December 2023 ends up being BTC's local top, a pullback to $22-24k would represent a 0.236 Fib level correction from current levels ($42-45k) -- a commonly observed post-bear market/bullish Elliott Wave 1 (impulse) to Wave 2 (corrective) pattern. As long as Wave 2 doesn't retrace below the beginning of Wave 1, then Wave 3, Wave 5, or both (likely the case here*) will be parabolic, pumping BTC & alt-coin markets to new ATHs in 2024/2025.
While such a correction would be painful for many in the short to mid-term, a significant pullback would fundamentally align with current "sell the news" BTC ETF rhetoric, historically observed pre-halving corrections/post-halving parabolic bull markets (see week of March 9, 2020*), and would also send us down into BTC's most recently formed Macro bottom trending support line (the big green line with the highest pitch - largest angle relative to the horizontal axis*) for a 3rd & final time -- a callsign of the beginning of past cycles' largest parabolic moves (EWT Waves 3 & 5, split by a smaller corrective Wave 4) and strong confirmation of the coming pump to new ATHs in 2024/2025 ($110-160k).
That said, predominantly bullish market sentiment/current fundamentals around a potential US Spot BTC ETF approval in January simply cannot be ignored -- given the high anticipation of the looming ETF decisions/assumed approvals on Jan. 10, 2024 + the opportunity for further speculation in the meantime, it’s more probable that we’ll (at least) see a short-term pump before the ETF announcement vs starting a slow grind lower now. If an ETF approval is surprisingly denied or even delayed another, BTC would likely see a significant pullback - perhaps as low as $30-34k. If ETFs are approved as many are expecting, bullish reactions could push BTC into the $47-52k range for some period of time.
If this happens, many crypto traders who've been in the space for 1-2 cycles would likely take a "sell the news" approach in this range and expect to buy back lower after the initial hype of the approval wears off. Price correcting from there would also resemble a higher magnitude fractal of BTC’s bullish price action from March, which many crypto traders would take note of and likely use in their trading decisions. Depending on location/country of citizenship, veteran traders (3+ cycles) may do the same, with the majority hedging for different outcomes via perps/options + other potential methods on & off-chain. The newest generation (this being their first cycle) will likely just HODL to the moon (or the bottom) with OG long-term BTC maxis.
If whales/HNWIs + an army of retail degens react euphorically to the ETF news in January (not completely out of the question), BTC could rip higher to $58-60k -- this is where I would expect "smart money" to start taking profits though and would likely initiate a correction back to current levels (low-to-mid $40ks) before the next Macro leg up and the REAL bull begins 🥂🚀
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.