BTC next four years

14 May 2019

This chart is based off a few assumptions. First, the rate of exponential growth must slow over time. It isn't realistic to expect $100 million per BTC in 10 years. Sorry. Second, as BTC matures the percentage price range between peaks and valleys will also decrease. Third, bitcoin price movements are cyclical and centered around the supply halving events. Fourth, highs and lows in price will occur at roughly the same time frames relative to the halvings as they have in past cycles. Fifth, the shape of the price curve from ATH, to bottom, back to ATH will be roughly in line with the last cycle in timing. Basically we are assuming that bitcoin's price will continue to exhibit similar trends and cycles that it has up to this point but with declining growth rates and volatility.

The green and red lines exhibit a channel of price action, with the widest point (highest volatility) coming at the 2013 bubble peak and declining steadily for the rest of bitcoin's life. This makes sense as the markets mature. If this holds true, we can expect each parabolic rise to the cycle peaks to be less vertical in shape and each resulting crash to be less intense as well. Basically each cycle will be slightly flatter than the last.

The blue curves are rough price trends that the price followed last time. This can give us a guess as to timings. Price hits the bottom about a year or so before the next halving each time, and comes close to the red support line near the halving where it gets a small peak before beginning the bull run in earnest. Last time, price stayed below the blue line until bottoming out, at which point it then rose above the blue line until following it fairly closely and underneath it up to the next ATH. This is basically exactly what we're seeing right now. The yellow line therefore represents a decent guess for the price trend for the rest of the current cycle.

Key takeaways here are that we have already hit bottom for this cycle. We could still decline down to the red line (a little above 4K currently) but overall the trend will be up until the next peak and I wouldn't expect price to ever drop below 4k again. We will likely have a small peak around the time of the halving around 10-12k before falling back closer to the blue trend line. We should reach our previous ATH in early 2021 with a cycle top around the end of 2021 or very early 2022 somewhere around 85-90k. This peak price is also supported by the idea that traders will front run the 100k psychological barrier, followed by panic selling of investors worried they will be unable to hit their 100k targets. I would then expect the next cycle's bottom to be somewhere between 25-30k depending on timing, sometime between mid 2022 to early 2023.


Feel free to follow me on twitter @_jasonblo

17 Ara 2019

Not

7 months later and Bitcoin, despite a momentary run up above my prediction line, has now fallen basically exactly on it. It will be interesting to see if it follows it from here out. If so, things may be a bit boring/bearish for a while before the bull run begins in earnest in the first half of 2020.