GOLD to BTC: "Don't miss this bull, we're just getting started!"

5 May 2019

Comparing Bitcoin to Gold?? That can't give you any meaningful trade indication can it?

Well first of all look at the perfect buy signal it gave back in December, which I posted in February, on that +33.50% bounce from the low. Right when everyone was wondering where the bottom was, "Should I buy?", "Is this going to $1000?", "Buying on a bear market, that's crazy!":

Now that I've got your attention let's see where we are at today. We've talked about the Golden Cross before. I even compared the Bitcoin's 2015 Golden Cross with the one that just took place:

It is obvious that Bitcoin is trading on an important crossroad with various conflicting short term (because long term it is as good of an investment as any) signals. What is also obvious though, is that if Bitcoin continues to follow Gold's early 2000s price action, and more particularly its Golden Cross, then it will continue to aggressively rise towards new All Time Highs without any last pull back as it did in 2015.

How likely that is to happen? Based on BTCUSD's historic volatility and parabolic growth curve, less likely. Various models and indicators that have worked so far in the past (like the one shown below) will be rendered useless in that scenario:

** Two important elements to point out here, as I did mention on the previous BTC - Gold comparison:

1. the different time frames (BTC on 1D/ Gold on 1W). This shouldn't affect the conclusions derived as Bitcoin's life span is far shorter than Gold which has been used as a store of value for centuries. Moreover Bitcoin has been moving at a much faster pace since its invention, so the market psychology, dynamics etc have adapted to a much shorter time frame.

2. Gold strong lift-off was backed by the launch of its ETF in 2003. We may not be far away from a similar situation on Bitcoin .


What I want to highlight though with this comparison is the importance to view Bitcoin as a long term investment. To buy when the demand pressure is clear, accumulate, scale and hold for the long term. The time will and has worked so far in favor of BTC just like it has done with Gold.

Like Gold, Bitcoin (which is commonly referred to as the Digital Gold) displays similar market bias and the trading psychology is strongly linked. As we emphatically saw the +33.50% bounce buy signal was already confirmed so the behavioral pattern of Bitcoin's 2018/2019 cycle so far is quite similar to Gold's 80s/ 90s cycle.

Gold gave investors many similar buy signals throughout 1999 - 2003 at the end of its last bear cycle, just as Bitcoin is giving since last December. Investors who ignored those and failed to buy Gold during the late 90s have missed a great opportunity, which has never come back.

Investor psychology during market cycle's can be identical throughout very different financial assets.

Are you willing to be like those investors who bypassed a once in a lifetime opportunity on Gold? Do you think Bitcoin will follow Gold's example? Let me know on the comments section!



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