Bull cycle is not over yet ! (but I am not buying or selling)
Bitcoin (and the rest of the crypto market) look very bearish. I am starting to hear and read "the end of the cycle" in youtube and x. I can see the reason why. 4H, daily and even 5D chart look pretty bearish.
However, the weekly setup of momentum indicators make me think it is still too early to say the bull market is over.
Please look at the blue dotted lines in the chart. These areas have very similar setups.
1) All momentum indicators are in the bull zone.
2) It looks that MACD lines are about to cross but haven't. There are many occasions where they look like they are about to cross to the downside but they just touch and resume to the upside. MACD is a very slow moving indicator. It is not very useful for intraday trading, but for the higher time frame (daily, weekly etc), it removes a lot of market noises and is very reliable.
3) The RSI based MA line (orange line in RSI) is still sloping upwards. This line ignores market noises. If the angle of the line is sloping up, the price tends to continue to trend upwards until it starts to change its angle.
4) Stochastic is moving downwards, however, there is a sign it is rolling back to the upside. Stochastic is the fastest reacting indicator among the three. So it provides an early sign of what may be coming.
At this stage, I will not be selling my BTC. (I mean I will not open a long term short position) until I see a clear sign of the trend reversal in the daily or weekly timeframe.
P.S. A lot of price manipulation happens on weekends so in general I won't make a big decision based on the weekend price action.
However, the weekly setup of momentum indicators make me think it is still too early to say the bull market is over.
Please look at the blue dotted lines in the chart. These areas have very similar setups.
1) All momentum indicators are in the bull zone.
2) It looks that MACD lines are about to cross but haven't. There are many occasions where they look like they are about to cross to the downside but they just touch and resume to the upside. MACD is a very slow moving indicator. It is not very useful for intraday trading, but for the higher time frame (daily, weekly etc), it removes a lot of market noises and is very reliable.
3) The RSI based MA line (orange line in RSI) is still sloping upwards. This line ignores market noises. If the angle of the line is sloping up, the price tends to continue to trend upwards until it starts to change its angle.
4) Stochastic is moving downwards, however, there is a sign it is rolling back to the upside. Stochastic is the fastest reacting indicator among the three. So it provides an early sign of what may be coming.
At this stage, I will not be selling my BTC. (I mean I will not open a long term short position) until I see a clear sign of the trend reversal in the daily or weekly timeframe.
P.S. A lot of price manipulation happens on weekends so in general I won't make a big decision based on the weekend price action.
Feragatname
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