BTC ... the stage is being setup

26 Eyl 2018

Hello guys, been a while ... so busy, and trying to make some money trading too.
It's been tough ... BTC has been in a tight range for a while.

This is what I see.

I believe these things:

- we have completed a 5 wave impulse from when BTC started trading to up to the 20k high.
- we have been forming an ABC correction since the beginning of this year.
- we are currently forming wave C of that correction and that started at the high of 8500 back on July 24, 2018.
- wave C is normally an impulse down.
- black wave to (1) is wave 1
- blue wave I show on this chart is wave (2) and it is a triangle wave. Looks like wave E will top out around 6650.
- then we start wave (3), (4) and (5) shown in the red wave. This coincides with timing on CBOE ETF decision by SEC, fueled by a likely delay or rejection.
- we hit a support line (shown in purple) that has developed for the last (at least) 3 years at 5k.
- if the CBOE ETF is approved (unlikely), we stop this impulse down cold and start an impulse up, which is the pink wave.

I have a long from 6390 ... will close that at 6645. I will wait to see what happens after that, looking for a good entry to short.

Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.

Do not use this information for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.

27 Eyl 2018

Not

Getting worried about waiting for 6645 to close the long ... it's struggling breaking 6530. I might close partially.
I have raised my stop to 6295 ... my entry is 6390, so less at risk now.

27 Eyl 2018

Not

Someone building a sell wall at 6795 on finex ... see tensorcharts.com.
A little bit of a buy wall just above 6k ... but I wouldn't call it significant yet.

27 Eyl 2018

Not

6535 ... do not underestimate the importance of that wick that broke 6530. The bulls have a renewed strength.

27 Eyl 2018

Not

Haha, you see how important breaking 6530 was?!? Well, there you have it. I closed out my long (want to be safe, locked in almost 5% profit). Anyhow, now I look for a short. We've gone above the triangle which was at around 6680 (it hit it sooner than I predicted ... so the triangle was a bit higher than the 6645 I predicted yesterday). This could be wave E ... and wave E's are famous for overshooting the triangle ... so this could be a bull trap. I'm not shorting this right now until I see things settle. The possibilities right now (there are many, but here are the main ones) ... 6745 was the Wave E top OR 6840 double top OR 7000 from a relatively perfect ABC correction. Right now I have a short order in at 6840 and will look to add 7000 ... I set the stop at 7205 ... but may need to re-evaluate that depending on the momentum. I have the flexibility to add more to the short higher, and raise the stop. If anything changes, hopefully I'll have the time and be in a position to note it here.

27 Eyl 2018

Not

A very minor update with my chart:

27 Eyl 2018

Not

even though I show the potential of going to 7k in the above chart, the higher probability is a drop from here or going to 6830/6840. There we hit another major log trend line and the bottom of the ichi cloud (next candle).

So my thoughts are to enter a short at 6835 and look to add in case it goes to 7000.

1 Eki 2018

Not

I'm going to research the SEC today, to find out what the official stance is on the CBOE ETF. The Sep 30 deadline has come and gone, and still we have sideways. I've adjusted the forecast ... still in a triangle wave. Before I plot these waves ... I pick the type of wave based on the market sentiment ... it's clearly confused ... and a triangle wave is a reflection of that.

1 Eki 2018

Not

OK, so after some digging, the SEC announcement made on Sep 20th, cryptically notified of a delay. The CBOE ETF application decision deadline is now officially Dec 29th, 2018.

This is the SEC message, which does not explicitly state the deadline date (I read through all of it). sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-84231.pdf

This article explains how we can interpret the deadline as now being Dec 29th.
cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/08/u-s-sec-we-will-make-a-decision-regarding-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-by-30-september-2018/

5 Eki 2018

Not

Folks, this is how I see it ... we have tried to break 6640 a few times now, and the attempts are failing ... each time the volume gets lower and lower. Bitfinex volume is now at $59 million on BTC ... that's very low. In the haydays at the beginning of the year an average day was $700 million on BTC alone. Now, I am aware of Bitfinex doing a lot of trade via OTC, so that doesn't reflect (I've read an estimate of 50% of trades are on OTC), but even considering that ... it's still low.

The market is waiting for a move, up or down ... en mass, people are unsure which way it is going to go. I don't know and you don't know. So we have to side with the facts. We are still in a bear market ... even the current movement is bearish, we are making lower highs with each attempt to break 6640, and volume is dropping off. I've noticed someone is buying the drops ... how long can they prop the price up??? The market to me is more interested in shorting this level than buying.

So, I'm siding with a drop at some stage. We've had lots of sideways, and something is going to break ... I don't know when, but ichi cloud suggests in next week or two.

Another thing to point out ... even though I am somewhat bearish, I sense a change in tides ... we have been stuck in the 6000 to 6800 range for over 1 month. Alts are breaking free (to some extent) and having their rallies (they are not uncoupled to BTC though). My thought is we are close to the end of this bear, and as each day passes I begin to doubt we will ever go below 5k ... and maybe even the bottom has passed. It's time to reflect on the data we have over the past 3 months ... and decide whether the days of wishing for 3k BTC are over. Obviously I could be wrong ... it's all a game of probability, but for me the odds of cracking 5k are dropping pretty steadily each day.

Here's my latest chart ... I think we could drop to somewhere between 6250 and 6300. I am short from 6625 (I got in on last nights rally to 6626).

Trade safe.

9 Eki 2018

Not

I'm starting to doubt we will get below 5k with each day that passes in this range ... we have been stuck for weeks in the 6100 - 6800 range. The market feels different ... I cannot say the bears are in full control anymore ... but then my mind says perhaps this is a great manipulative strategy of some whales ... convince us to go long and then they hit us!

The reality is, it is becoming difficult to use theory to determine what will happen, because volatility is so low. We have to turn to larger time frames to see the patterns. This is what I can come up with on the daily, the completion of an ABCDE pattern (triangle wave, in blue). The question is, do we breakdown or up. The higher probability remains a breakdown (red wave) as we are in a bear market. But we cannot exclude the possibility of breaking up ... to around 7100. I have a short at 6625, and was waiting for 6800 for another entry. I am in two minds about closing the short ... as we could breakdown right now. On the other hand, I am concerned it could go up, so I could close here without loss, and open higher.

It's a guess game at this stage ... and when I'm guessing, I don't like trading. I would rather sit out and see what happens. Wyckoff theory is probably one of the better tools to use in this climate ... and right now, I see a better short entry above at 6720 to 6740 ... and downside now being 6500 to 6600 range for accumulation zone. Based on that, I might close my short soon (small profit) and then open a long when I see better support, but that would only be for a scalp. It does depend on the momentum of this correction ... if it gets going hard ... I"ll sit back.

10 Eki 2018

Not

As each day passes, I begin to believe more that the bottom is VERY close, or has already passed us.

For me ... OPTION 1 (PINK) ... sideways for 3 months, stuck between 6100 and 6900 until we get some good news and takes us above the all time high trend line for good. SEC is making decisions at the end of October and December for ETFs. BAKKT is set to launch in November.

OPTION 2 ... it breaks down at some stage, and I cannot tell you where the bottom is, but we have the following strong support levels ... 6250, 6000, 5755, 5400, 5000. I doubt it can go below 5k now ... not impossible, but very, very low chance.

11 Eki 2018

Not

Looks like it will be the red wave!!

As mentioned above, 6250 was the first stop ... but we just cracked that. Based on the momentum of the drop I pulled my long order at 6225. Taking a closer look, there's support at 6100, and then we should see 599X.

I think bears really need to coordinate themselves now to make a new low ... if they don't, they may lose the opportunity for good. With each bounce at the 5755 - 6000, it just creates stronger support. People start to believe with each attempt that it won't go lower, and will long in order not to miss out!

See the area that I circled on this chart ... this is where we are playing right now.

12 Eki 2018

Not

As we stick in this 6220 to 6320 range, we are just building support at this level. The bears need to work harder to crack this nut. Based on the momentum of the drop two days ago, I really thought it would push for 6k levels (bitfinex price). But instead the support at 6250 (which you will see was my first estimate in one of the updates above, see OPTION 2), proves to be strong. The bulls stopped that drop dead in it's tracks. Hard to tell what will happen, but if/when the bulls take over, they can build super momentum on a rally, and crack 6800. That would likely put 7k to 7.2k into target.

BUT! Bears aren't done. We could visit 5985, it's possible.

So what to do? Downside right now is 200 points, upside is 600 to 800 points. I'm laddering in some longs now. I bought XRP on a dip last night at 0.384. That has worked out well for me so far this morning (up 12% on that purchase). I only put in 10% of my stack though, as I'm unsure. As this support continues to build, I will likely add more (not XRP though, but maybe NEO or EOS, NEO got hammered yesterday, and will likely bounce back nicely to $18 - $19 levels). With long entries on BTC dips to 6220 ... the stop can be very tight. Cracking below 6.2k, I estimate a short stop at 6080 to 6100 and almost definitely a test of 5985.

Let's see. It's guesswork, but I have a plan...

15 Eki 2018

Not

No one could have predicted that ... no one. See my comment on Oct 12 above. I the bulls held 6250 ... you see the momentum ... went way passed my expectation of 7200.

Anyhow ... I've been saying for a while now ... I doubt we break 5k. In fact now I'm even starting to think 5755 was the bottom.

In the end we went down on the red line showed and bounced on the first possible support I mentioned of 6250. That is VERY bullish, in my opinion.

Here's my latest chart snapshot. I'm going to start a new idea, as I think we are in a new chapter ...