BTC Daily TA Cautiously Bearish
BTCUSD daily guidance is neutral bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash.
*BULL TRAP WATCH. Bitcoin is at a critical resistance and is currently testing a one year descending trendline. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Energy, Gold, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX, Agriculture, EURUSD and CNYUSD are up. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned today leaving the Conservative Party looking for its third Prime Minister in as many years. Chatter from Federal Reserve staff continues to point to a 75bps rate hike with a strong possibility of 100bps, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (not a current FOMC member) said today that he expects FFR to be well above 4% by year end (it's currently at 3%-3.25%). Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently testing $19417 support for the fifty-third consecutive session as it retests the descending trendline from November 2021 for the first time since March 2022; this is a critical juncture that will influence whether BTC will retest 15k or breakout to 24k. Volume is on track to be both Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at 20k, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43.76 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~35. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 25 as it's still technically testing 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a fourth consecutive session but continues to trend sideways at -175 for what is now nine consecutive sessions; it's technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 12 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins trending up as Price continues to fall this would be mildly bearish, and if it falls as Price continues to go down this would be mildly bullish.
If Price is able to breakout of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $19417 resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance; it's important to be wary of a potential Bull Trap in this environment. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~15.5k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
*BULL TRAP WATCH. Bitcoin is at a critical resistance and is currently testing a one year descending trendline. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Energy, Gold, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX, Agriculture, EURUSD and CNYUSD are up. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned today leaving the Conservative Party looking for its third Prime Minister in as many years. Chatter from Federal Reserve staff continues to point to a 75bps rate hike with a strong possibility of 100bps, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (not a current FOMC member) said today that he expects FFR to be well above 4% by year end (it's currently at 3%-3.25%). Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently testing $19417 support for the fifty-third consecutive session as it retests the descending trendline from November 2021 for the first time since March 2022; this is a critical juncture that will influence whether BTC will retest 15k or breakout to 24k. Volume is on track to be both Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at 20k, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43.76 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~35. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 25 as it's still technically testing 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a fourth consecutive session but continues to trend sideways at -175 for what is now nine consecutive sessions; it's technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 12 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins trending up as Price continues to fall this would be mildly bearish, and if it falls as Price continues to go down this would be mildly bullish.
If Price is able to breakout of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $19417 resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance; it's important to be wary of a potential Bull Trap in this environment. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~15.5k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
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