180914 Why I got into short position at $6,500

14 Eyl 2018

let me answer question; "Why I got into short position at $6,500"


There are infinite number of EW counting, but this one might be most optimistic.
In this counting, we are on the C wave of 3rd ABC correction of triple zigzag.


So the end of this wave should be lower than $5,755 which was last end point of C wave in 2nd zigzag.(redline)

However we need extended extended extended wave (3) to make my EW counting natural(purple).
Therefore, It might not go over $6,550 (most likely)



I know lots of people are watching r-hs pattern, but let`s go back to July

July 2018


Now


Imo, the only variable is CBOE expire date.
As you can see in July`s case, It spiked up 18 -19 of July.



Sadly, I missed my sick short position in XBTU18 (my order was 6497, and it spiked up to 6496.5 :P)
In conclusion, personally I shorted $7,506 (bitfinex) and set stop loss $6.551+.

I think the odds is more than 10%, so I am comfortable with my decision.

14 Eyl 2018

Not

sadly, I automatically execute stop - loss(6,550)
It could be rejected at $6,600.
If it really does, ....I will cry lol