Harmonic Fibonacci Map (Risk Management)

3 gün önce

From the visual appearance of this harmonic pattern, it most closely resembles a Gartley pattern due to the following key characteristics:

1. **AB Retracement of XA:**
- In a Gartley pattern, the AB leg usually retraces about 61.8% of the XA leg. My AB leg seems to align with this.

2. **BC Extension:**
- The BC leg in a Gartley often extends between 38.2% and 88.6% of AB. My chart appears to fit this range.

3. **CD Projection:**
- The CD leg typically ends around 78.6% of the XA retracement in a Gartley. Based on the harmonic completion zone, this seems plausible.

Why not a Bat or Crab?
- **Bat Pattern:** The Bat requires a deeper retracement of the XA leg (88.6%) for Point D, which my pattern does not seem to meet.
- **Crab Pattern:** The Crab involves an extended CD leg, usually reaching 161.8% of XA or beyond. My CD leg looks more moderate, aligning better with the Gartley.

This is the drop so far, and its outcome depends on how high Bitcoin moves next. Minor corrections could improve the price, and don’t overlook the significance of BTC.D. This idea shouldn’t be ignored.

It’s tailored for short-term traders—take it as an opportunity, not for granted. Use it to compare with your own analysis; you might uncover insights aligned with what I’ve already warned is likely to happen. Any professional trader understands that Bitcoin is due for a correction after such an unnatural spike and I'm not a professional trader, it's what I've learned and applied to myself.

Currently, retail traders are caught up in the hype. We need to wait for this hype-driven bait to subside. In the meantime, we'll observe how altcoins respond.

3 gün önce

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Good night, everyone, I'm now deactivated

3 gün önce

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The same liquidity showcased in the idea chart “Dynamic-Liquidity-Analyzer” has played out remarkably. To be honest, I never expected Bitcoin to come so close to the $112 target this quickly.

Using the same approach I applied to create the pivot zones in the idea “Harmonic Fibonacci Map,” which summed up to $94,829, I’ve now shifted to the liquidity threshold method from the “Dynamic-Liquidity-Analyzer.” This currently reads the 100K zone as the starting point for a bleed, gradually moving down toward the 95K area.

Quick update on the ATH top: Today’s action saw a significant number of retail traders around the globe getting baited. The scale of this is substantial, and I’ll have the exact figures soon. Stay tuned!

3 gün önce

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Dark pools are driving prices downward, and while some sell at a loss, it creates the illusion that prices are climbing toward a new ATH. But don’t be misled. We need to let this scenario play out. You and I both know that what happened last night wasn’t part of the usual script, leaving no doubt that a dump is on the horizon.

3 gün önce

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While some of you had the opportunity to sell as short-term traders at 109K, I had clearly pointed out that the 1.5 risk-reward ratio target—set back on 1/5/25—was already reached. I emphasized that going higher was unlikely, and if it did, a pullback would be necessary.

Bitcoin has been moving in waves, and the idea that prices will continuously rise to a higher orbit without correction simply doesn’t align with reality and then again that would depend where you bought and where your stop-loss is.

3 gün önce

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The 100K zone target has been reached. Next, we’re heading toward the 95K zone.

3 gün önce

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On the 1-hour timeframe, it’s clear this move was driven by whales, creating an illusion to lure more retail traders, only for it to turn into a dump later. Meanwhile, the 4-hour timeframe reveals that dark pools are still actively driving prices downward.

3 gün önce

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Looking at my daily timeframe, dark pools are now actively pushing prices down. This wasn’t the case since the spike occurred last night and early this morning. However, the activity has now appeared, indicating a threshold mismatch that doesn’t align with volume—clear evidence that prices are headed downhill.

Yesterday, I mentioned the 90K zone was off the table due to a negative liquidity threshold reading above -1.50%. Now it has shifted to -1.03, and anything below -1.00 brings the 90K zone back into consideration. That said, I’m not leaning toward 90K, as my analysis doesn’t support such a drop. Several TA indicators are opposing the 90K zone, suggesting it’s unlikely to be reached.

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4 PM PT is fast approaching, and while the specifics remain unclear, it's crucial to brace for a potential global shakeout. Here's the good news: this isn’t the end—prices aren’t crashing. Instead, a bullish spike is likely to follow shortly after.

USDT.D dominance is expected to rise, reflecting caution in the market, while BTC.D shows signs of weakness. For those holding altcoins, now is not the time to be discouraged. Stay confident, as this turbulence could set the stage for the start of an altcoin season.

Dark pools and billionaire market manipulators thrive on exploiting unprepared traders. Their aim is to create panic, but awareness and preparation are your strongest allies. This shakeout might cause global anxiety, but together with the right tools and strategies, we can stand firm against these market moves.

Are you ready? I know I am—fully prepared with my tools to fight back against the manipulators. Let’s seize the opportunities ahead!

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When I say altcoins will be shaken out, I mean a **severe shakeout** is coming. We have about 1.5 hours to prepare, so for everyone following this channel, pay close attention. It’s crucial to remain calm when the heat begins. **Whatever you do, don’t sell for losses.** Let others around the globe panic sell if they want, but don’t let fear dictate the outcome of your hard-earned investments.

As prices drop due to panic selling, this could actually signal the beginning of **altcoin season.** Remember, no matter how far altcoins devalue during this shakeout—what took months or even years to lose since the bear market—**they can rebound and skyrocket in a matter of seconds.**

Here’s what’s happening: large players pumped Bitcoin to an extraordinary all-time high—the unexpected. Psychologically, this suggests they pumped it to cash out and leave retail traders trapped at 109K. As Bitcoin devalues, USDT.D is likely to spike, pushing the broader crypto market down. With no significant Bitcoin buying pressure, BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) will decline, potentially paving the way for altcoin season.

The strategy of these major players is clear: they moved from Bitcoin into USDT.D to devalue cryptocurrency. Once the shakeout is complete, we could see a massive flow of capital from USDT.D into altcoins, sparking the surge we’ve all been waiting for.

Stay focused, stay calm, and don’t fall into the trap—they want you to panic. This could be the moment we’ve been preparing for.

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Here is the narrative of a plausible scenario breakdown in details, particularly given the patterns of market manipulation often observed in the crypto space. Let’s break it down:

1. **Severe Shakeout:**
- Sudden and severe drops in prices, particularly in altcoins, often aim to trigger fear and panic selling. Larger players capitalize on these moments to accumulate assets at lower prices.

2. **Remaining Calm and Avoiding Panic Sells:**
- This is sound advice. Selling in a panic often locks in losses, benefiting market manipulators. Retail traders selling for losses creates further devaluation, providing opportunities for larger players.

3. **Altcoin Season Potential:**
- The idea that altcoins could quickly rebound after a shakeout is plausible. Historically, altcoin seasons often follow Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) declines, as funds flow into altcoins once Bitcoin becomes less favorable.

4. **Bitcoin at 109K (Psychological Play):**
- If Bitcoin were to reach an unexpected all-time high and subsequently devalue, it could trap retail traders who entered late. This aligns with psychological tactics used by market manipulators to create fear and confusion.

5. **USDT.D Spike and Its Implications:**
- A spike in USDT dominance (USDT.D) signals traders moving to stablecoins, often during uncertainty. As USDT flows out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, this could indeed mark the beginning of an altcoin surge.

6. **Dark Pool and Whale Activity:**
- The notion that larger players orchestrate these moves to benefit from retail panic is well-documented. Such players often exploit market psychology to their advantage.

While no one can guarantee this specific scenario will play out, it aligns with market behaviors observed in the past. The key takeaway: Stay calm, avoid emotional decisions, and be prepared to adapt to market changes. If this signals the start of altcoin season, having a strategy in place could be critical to capitalize on the opportunities.

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As Bitcoin begins to fall—if that scenario unfolds, which I strongly believe it will—it aligns perfectly with my USDT.D analysis. USDT.D has hit the target of my short position, and the technical analysis indicates a spike in dominance. This suggests that the crypto market is likely to take a significant hit to the downside.

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USDT.D is set to rise gradually, spiking along the way. The spike that occurred last night unexpectedly dipped lower than anticipated, which triggered a significant spike in Bitcoin's price. This deviation manipulated my TA, effectively canceling it out. As of today, the analysis has reset and concluded with a USDT.D bull run.

A USDT.D bull run typically signals a decline in the crypto market unless BTC.D also enters a bull run, which could help stabilize Bitcoin’s price. At the moment, BTC.D shows slight positive momentum, suggesting it’s gearing up for a potential bull run that could provide some support to Bitcoin.

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ETH: Be mindful of your stop loss. The fall from USDT.D **will** impact ETH significantly. Consider my advice as a second opinion, but ensure you conduct your own thorough analysis to prepare accordingly.

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As this bull market reaches its peak and we cash out with significant profits, it’s important to reflect: moments of severe devaluation like these shouldn’t be part of our experience. Let me be transparent—I’ve been open about being new to this space, and I’ve personally fallen victim to smart money manipulation in the past.

Since then, I’ve been preparing to fight back against these tactics, and I want the same for all of you. Together, we can navigate this market with clarity and precision, avoiding unnecessary traps. Many of you already know that calling out real-time signals, especially on lower timeframes, is my primary focus—and it’s a commitment I stand by to help you stay ahead in this ever-changing landscape.

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Don’t let the uptrend deceive you—it’s driven by widespread panic selling at a loss. Once this selling activity tapers off and stalls, we could see a sudden and steep decline. Stay cautious and vigilant. Smart money isn’t stepping in with significant buys right now; instead, they’re staying in the shadows, watching as some retail traders fall victim to the traps they’ve carefully laid.

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When retail traders sell at a loss, it can actually cause the price to rise temporarily. This happens because the selling clears the market, allowing larger players to buy at lower prices. However, this price increase may not last. If the market players aren’t prepared to drive prices higher or sustain the momentum, it can lead to another decline. This cycle is often used as a tactic to manipulate and unsettle retail traders.

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If no one is ready for 95K, it’s time to get prepared—because we may not have much of a choice, and the heat might just be starting. While I’m hopeful for a shift change to the upside, if this is what it takes to ignite altcoin season, then so be it. I’ve been warning about this for the past week, with reminders yesterday and again today even when bitcoin was at 109k. Stay focused and ready for what’s ahead.

Whatever you do, no selling for losses. It's your choice.

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While anything is possible, I’ve been evaluating my risk management and here’s a concise breakdown:
1. USDT.D: It’s showing no signs of risk, loaded with enough bullish momentum to drive Bitcoin down to a minimum of around 95K.
2. BTC.D: Bitcoin dominance is losing its bullish strength and is nearing a stall point.
3. Bitcoin’s Position: For further upward movement, Bitcoin needs to reload. Last Sunday’s correction provided a good setup, but instead of consolidating yesterday, Bitcoin surged. This introduces significant risk, highlighting the importance of a correction before the next leg up.

In summary, the current dynamics suggest caution and a need for balance in the market.

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Emir iptal

The crypto market is in a state of chaos, creating deceptive signals about the direction prices should move. While the patterns appear clear at first glance, the outcomes have often contradicted expectations. I’ll be honest—I feel like I’ve fallen short in some ways, though perhaps not entirely. I’ve poured significant effort into analyzing Bitcoin, and while my analysis might have been accurate, my mindset may have played a role in shaping calls that didn’t align with the actual market movement.

Trading isn’t just about analysis—it’s about maintaining composure, having a well-defined strategy, and staying focused amidst the noise. I recognize that there’s room for me to grow in these areas. I’m not exactly sure where the disconnect happened, but I believe stepping back for a while is the right move. This time will allow me to reflect, refine my approach, and come back stronger and better prepared to navigate the market’s complexities.

I’ve been noticing a frustrating pattern—when I make calls and things start heading in that direction, the market often reverses against us. It makes me wonder if sharing our analysis publicly is part of the issue. Maybe larger players are using that information, since we know they don’t reveal their plans or the direction they’re actually taking.

Think about it: the larger players in the market, the ones who really drive price action, don’t openly reveal their intentions. Instead, they operate in the shadows, taking advantage of retail traders who are all moving in the same direction. It’s how they create liquidity to execute their own plans.

This has really made me rethink how much I share and whether being too open might be affecting the way I trade. It’s a tricky balance, but it’s something I’m determined to figure out.

My ultimate goal is to deliver the most accurate and insightful analysis possible, and I want to give myself the time to sharpen my skills and refine my approach. I appreciate the trust and support you’ve shown, and I’ll be back stronger and better equipped to help navigate these markets.

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"Breaking the Shadows: Conquering the Elusive Shorter Timeframes"

As outlined in my recent ideas, the path forward remains crystal clear. My focus now shifts entirely toward mastering the art of shorter timeframes, a territory that is as unforgiving as it is rewarding. This endeavor is not a whimsical detour—it's a deliberate, calculated pursuit. I am developing my skills with purposeful patience, knowing full well that shorter timeframes demand a far more nuanced and precise understanding than their longer-term counterparts.

It’s no secret: shorter timeframes are treacherous. They are a labyrinth of volatility and psychological warfare, where even the most seasoned traders falter. Unlike the higher weekly or monthly timeframes, which offer a broader, calmer perspective of market direction, shorter timeframes unravel into a battlefield where smart money thrives, and retail traders are too often outwitted.

The "Why" Behind This Pursuit
Why undertake such a challenging journey? The answer lies not just in the intellectual thrill of solving this puzzle but in the critical necessity it holds for traders. Higher timeframes, while reliable, fail us in bear markets. When the market's downward waves dominate, long-term trends are rendered ineffective, leaving traders stranded. Shorter timeframes, then, become our lifeline. They hold the key to navigating these treacherous waters, offering insights into entry and exit points, reversals, and micro-trends that can sustain a trader even when the broader market direction seems bleak.

The Retail Struggle: Why Shorter Timeframes Are Undermined
But here’s the truth many overlook: shorter timeframes have not been conquered. They remain an enigma, guarded by the veil of smart money manipulation. Institutions and market makers are all too aware of how retail traders operate in this space. They understand that shorter timeframes amplify emotions—impatience, panic, and fear—and they exploit these vulnerabilities with ruthless precision.

The smart money mocks retail traders because they know the psychological traps of shorter timeframes: the constant noise, the false signals, the chaos that breeds mistakes. This is no accident; this is the game, and it’s rigged in their favor. But I believe there is a formula—an elusive, hidden strategy—buried within this chaos. Finding it, however, requires time, dedication, and a willingness to confront failure.

A Personal Mission: Building for the Short-Term Trader
My mission, therefore, is clear. While long-term traders can sit back and relax, enjoying the comfort of bullish waves and broader trends, short-term traders face relentless uncertainty. They carry the stress of the daily grind, wondering what the market holds tomorrow. These traders deserve a better understanding of the process, tools to combat manipulation, and strategies to trade confidently—even under pressure.

For these reasons, I dedicate myself to this cause. Until I achieve the clarity and mastery needed to navigate shorter timeframes, I will provide only real-time updates in what's looks possible but not crafting ideas for shorter timeframes. This is not merely an academic exercise; it is a commitment to those who live and breathe the short-term grind.

Why Bear Markets Demand Shorter Timeframes
Bear markets are the ultimate test. They shred higher timeframe analysis, rendering long-term indicators ineffective as prices cascade downward. To survive and thrive in a bear market, one must learn to adapt, moving with the waves rather than against them. Shorter timeframes become a trader's survival kit, offering insights into how to reposition, exit, and capitalize on fleeting opportunities when the broader trend is no longer our ally.

Bitcoin Is Bullish, But My Focus Is Elsewhere
Let’s not mistake the intent of my analysis. Bitcoin has been bullish, and I’ve never claimed otherwise. However, my focus is on the shorter-term fluctuations, where bearish setups still emerge amidst the broader bullish trend. Why? Because it’s within these moments of bearish short-term volatility that short-term traders are tested. This is where we uncover the strategies that can turn stress into success and chaos into clarity.

The Path Forward
Until I achieve mastery in this domain, my work will remain rooted in shorter timeframe scenarios, presenting potential outcomes for short-term traders. This is a journey, not a sprint. It’s about building a foundation that traders can rely on—not just for one trade, but for their entire trading journey. I’ll share ideas, refine my approach, and work relentlessly toward the "passing grade" that signifies the next step in my evolution as a trader.

Shorter timeframes are not unconquerable; they are simply misunderstood. And I intend to change that.

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I will be creating a dedicated idea series focused exclusively on Bitcoin and Ethereum, primarily for date-stamping and timeline purposes. This initiative aims to provide a structured way to track market behavior and assist in making more informed and thorough decisions.

As I work on mastering shorter timeframes, I will share straightforward technical analysis (TA) numbers accompanied by brief descriptions. I will apply the same approach to higher timeframes, ensuring a clear and concise breakdown for both perspectives.

The purpose of this series is not to spark debate or competition but to serve as a reference point. While some may agree or disagree with my analyses, I encourage you to wait for the specified timeline to observe and compare your predictions with mine. This can help you assess whether your own analysis aligns with market movements or if adjustments are needed.

Ultimately, this is a learning and tracking exercise to refine our understanding of the markets—collaboration and constructive insights are welcome, but challenges or conflicts are not my focus.

dün

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Newly developed short and long positions reveal the following:
-Hourly short position targets $104,124.
-Daily timeframe shows no selling activity, suggesting traders should remain positioned.
-4-hour timeframe indicates price is holding around $104,407.

dün

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From the last most recent update. All still stands for now—
-Hourly short position targets $104,124.
-Daily timeframe shows no selling activity, suggesting traders should remain positioned.
-4-hour timeframe indicates price is holding around $104,407.

2 saat önce

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Smart money often takes notice when there are too many ideas floating around that aim in both bullish and bearish directions. This creates an opportunity for them to move the market in both ways—first triggering one side of liquidity, then the other. It’s a strategic play to capitalize on overleveraged positions and shake out weak hands before making a decisive move. That’s why you’ll often see sharp moves in opposite directions before the real trend emerges.

2 saat önce

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When the majority leans bearish, the price often moves bullish—and vice versa. This happens because smart money operates in the opposite direction of retail sentiment. They take advantage of the crowd’s expectations, using their positions as liquidity to fuel moves against them. It’s a classic setup: when everyone is bearish, sell-side liquidity builds up, creating the perfect opportunity for smart money to push the price higher and catch traders off guard.