BTCUSD 30 minute chart (6/6/2019)
Good morning, traders. I am more cautious at this time than what I have been. Price has failed to get back above the 21 EMA on the daily TF, which sits at $7940. As I said yesterday, this doesn't guarantee that price will go down further but it does increase the odds of it doing so. Also, I mentioned yesterday that we have either completed an ABC correction or just the first 3 waves of a 5 wave set. If it is the latter, then we should be looking for price to target daily demand between $6975-$7215 (though I could see price possibly targeting as low as $6500, since the May 17th drop across the exchanges is so different) where a bounce should take us to $7600, at least. Daily Stoch RSI is curled up at this time suggesting that we may see demand kick in on the larger TF sooner rather than later, and the daily pivot remains just below price at $7635. This does not mean that we can't see price fall further before that happens.
In the local TR, I don't like the lack of demand participation so far. We are just seeing low quality demand. The participation, at this time, appears to be on the supply side. That doesn't mean that we can't see things change as the TR continues developing, but currently this suggests that we could see price falling further as mentioned above. If price breaks through the descending blue resistance with volume, then higher prices could be in the cards. However, as long as that resistance holds price in check I am leaning toward further downside at this time. This is a very preliminary look at the TR, so keep in mind that things can, and often do, change as it develops. If we start seeing demand building greater than what it has been, and especially if that's coupled with supply continuing to drop, there is a likelihood that we can see price continue higher as outlined yesterday. But we absolutely need to see demand participation increase (i.e. larger demand volume).
The red horizontal line is the weekly/monthly pivot, so getting back above it would be bullish. Doing so would also take price above the descending channel's EQ, which is also bullish. The purple dashed line is the 2018 TR's EQ. Again, price moving above that level is bullish. As we can see, the 30 minute pivot sits up around $8600, so price has quite a distance to go in order to reach it. But, movement above it is bullish. Remember, price is currently above the daily pivot which is bullish on that larger TF, but if we don't start seeing some upward movement then my expectation is a drop below it. The daily S1 pivot is at $6180 and the bottom 2018 TR support is at $5920. These are some of the guidelines that traders can use to measure how price is doing for now.
Currently, the 30 minute Stoch RSI is bouncing off the bottom in oversold and is nearing a bullish cross while the RSI is slightly bearish at 44. In terms of price, we do see higher lows toward the resistance at the top of the local TR (the overhead supply keeping price in check so far). This means that we could be seeing an ascending triangle forming with a target of $8270. If price closes below the swing low of $7570.90 (dotted blue line) then the odds of falling further increase.
The big picture is that even if we see price head toward the 6000s as I have been talking about as a possibility for weeks now, it should just be wave 4 which means we've got a much higher target to complete wave 5. Then we would see the larger wave 2 retracement. Alts seem to be holding pretty well so far and there are opportunities out there for those not interested in trading BTC at these levels.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
In the local TR, I don't like the lack of demand participation so far. We are just seeing low quality demand. The participation, at this time, appears to be on the supply side. That doesn't mean that we can't see things change as the TR continues developing, but currently this suggests that we could see price falling further as mentioned above. If price breaks through the descending blue resistance with volume, then higher prices could be in the cards. However, as long as that resistance holds price in check I am leaning toward further downside at this time. This is a very preliminary look at the TR, so keep in mind that things can, and often do, change as it develops. If we start seeing demand building greater than what it has been, and especially if that's coupled with supply continuing to drop, there is a likelihood that we can see price continue higher as outlined yesterday. But we absolutely need to see demand participation increase (i.e. larger demand volume).
The red horizontal line is the weekly/monthly pivot, so getting back above it would be bullish. Doing so would also take price above the descending channel's EQ, which is also bullish. The purple dashed line is the 2018 TR's EQ. Again, price moving above that level is bullish. As we can see, the 30 minute pivot sits up around $8600, so price has quite a distance to go in order to reach it. But, movement above it is bullish. Remember, price is currently above the daily pivot which is bullish on that larger TF, but if we don't start seeing some upward movement then my expectation is a drop below it. The daily S1 pivot is at $6180 and the bottom 2018 TR support is at $5920. These are some of the guidelines that traders can use to measure how price is doing for now.
Currently, the 30 minute Stoch RSI is bouncing off the bottom in oversold and is nearing a bullish cross while the RSI is slightly bearish at 44. In terms of price, we do see higher lows toward the resistance at the top of the local TR (the overhead supply keeping price in check so far). This means that we could be seeing an ascending triangle forming with a target of $8270. If price closes below the swing low of $7570.90 (dotted blue line) then the odds of falling further increase.
The big picture is that even if we see price head toward the 6000s as I have been talking about as a possibility for weeks now, it should just be wave 4 which means we've got a much higher target to complete wave 5. Then we would see the larger wave 2 retracement. Alts seem to be holding pretty well so far and there are opportunities out there for those not interested in trading BTC at these levels.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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