BTC on an edge of falling into retracement

25 Şub 2020

This review will continue previous one

Hope everyone followed yesterday recommendations (telegram daily BTC review) and were cautious with alts. We caught BTC dip at 9500, but its time to admit that BTC is going into retracement stage (almost there unless it will pump today and change everything completely in several hours). Main support was at 9600, and since it is left above and act as resistance, hard to say, how long will 9500 hold and if there will be another mini bounce before the dump. Price is magnetized by lower SR zones at 8900 and 8550 and will get there sooner or later. This will be my long entries - catching dump wicks there. Today is still the day of cycles switch, so some sharp move is coming.

New cycle is starting, sharp move is coming soon.


With all said above I still think that big picture is bullish. Just as a reminder take a look at this cycles chart.

26 Şub 2020

Not

This can be a bullish retest of support, or inverted head and shoulders right shoulder forming. For long term holders no problem, but the market will be shaken.

27 Şub 2020

Not

As expected, BTC dumped to 8500, which potentially can extend down to 8300 - 7550 to form right shoulder of inverted H&S bullish pattern. Now making a dead cat bounce from 8500 (near 0.5 Fibonacci retracement). Size of bounce unpredictable, but strongest resistance left at ~9250 zone. Most probably will wick above 9k to fall again. Then either right shoulder completion or higher low and another test of ~9250 to complete retracement. Macro still bullish.

P.S. Buy the dips, but don't risk too much, as this might not be the bottom yet

28 Şub 2020

Not

Gave 8970 as 1st resistance and price stopped right there. Precisely. Forecast stay the same. If 8700 won't bounce today, BTC will fall to lower support zones at 8300 - 8000 - 7550 to form right shoulder of inverted H&S bullish pattern. Another possible scenario is bounce from 8300 to ~9k and forming a right shoulder of normal bearish H&S pattern. But that scenario doesn't really confront the bigger one, so also possible. Whatever happens, direction is down. We didn't give much calls yesterday, neither will today as market is a mine field you don't want to step on.

29 Şub 2020

Not

So far BTC managed to hold for 8700 SR, while still looking like able to fall lower to 8300 at least, and possible 7550 to form right shoulder for inverted H&S pattern. Today February candle close and so far the big picture look bullish. Just in case you forgot how it looks, today BTC chart is dedicated for all the bulls holding BTC long till December 2021. I can't say for sure if it will get to 450k by that time, but it will surely cost more than 10x from current value

2 Mar 2020

Not

No dump, still no dump. That makes me feel that bears are losing momentum and whales might use it to push price up for a while - at least to test ~9k resistance. Might not happen fast, but within this week.
P.S. No gap at CME futures chart. Only at 1H TF which is already closed. So no hints from CME this time.

9 Mar 2020

Not

The most important chart now

10 Mar 2020

Not

Nothing really changed since yesterday forecast. Global markets are dumping, oil price went down to the bottom, stocks are dying. The only thing that hold strong is Gold (XAU), and since BTC is digital gold, I feel it can become same attractive way to save money, as original. F&G index shows we are near the bottom. Even though another drop stay possible, most probably it will bounce fast. Also remember what I wrote about CME gap above. Its huge, and it is still there. Have you got balls to hold till its closed?

12 Mar 2020

Not

The whole market look like shit. In 28 days in USD value BTC lost 30%, ETH 42%, XRP 47%, EOS 55%. At big timeframe Bitcoin is about to cross the grand trendline. Last hope for bounce - inverted H&S. Now or never. If pattern fails and price close below ~7170, BTC will fall down to 6500 and below. Hard to predict the length of dump, but that will certainly be a panic selloff. The worst thing in chart is lack of volume.