I have always believed that we would eventually retest the yearly open. So let me explain the chart and my analysis -For the past 2.5 years we have made a lower high, then another lower high, then another lower high. So when we broke past $10,500, we officially broke bearish market structure by forming a higher high. What comes next? A higher low -When we extend the Fib out from the bottom around 3700ish to the top around 12100ish, that puts out 50% at $7800 and our 61.8% at 7100ish. Bullish insitutional participants dont want to be buying up here, they want to be buying in a discount market. Generally a 50% off sale or 62% is what they like to go for. BOGO. Buy one, get one free. -We have hit a bearish order block on the daily time frame from August 2019 which has never been tapped. -We are in a premium funded market. Institutional clients do not want to be getting leveraged longs in while paying premium for funding. -after the initial break of $10,500, we had a big green volume candle, since then the green volume candles have been tapering down on high prices. This is showing an exausted trend already despite what you may hear -
So where do we go from here ? Well i believe price will retrace. How far is too be determined, At first I would aim for between $10,100 and $10,300. And be absolutely prepared for it to bounce and go for all time highs. I am expecting a reaction at that price level. However, if we dont take out the bearish order block at $12,300, I would aim at the $7800 liquidity void.
What about the BRRRRRR money printing? They have stopped. This adds further confluence to my idea. How can you check for yourself? Simple. Go on your phone and download the "FRED" app. That is the "federal reserve economic data" app. Once downloaded you search for 2 things "Total assets" & "M2" From there you can go to chart and adjust the timeframe from say 4 months ago or a month ago to today. Notice the curve of the chart? They have quit printing money!
Either way, lets say this idea is totally out to lunch and we rip up from here. Just market buy on a break of $12,300 and dont worry about it. Dont forget, since you are into Bitcoin and crypto, you are absolutely more early than probably anyone else you know IRL, and as we know, bitcoin is going to $100,000 and Ethereum is going to $10,000 in the next bull cycle, perhaps more.
$10,271 is where I am initially looking for longs next
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