Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally into the $120k region. On the weekly timeframe, several signals point toward a potential corrective leg lower:
📊 Key Technicals
Major Supply Zone: $115k–$120k area has acted as resistance, with sellers defending this level.
Trend Structure: Price has broken momentum after the blow-off move and is now trading below recent highs.
EMA Support: Price is extended above the EMA 60 (94k), leaving room for mean reversion.
COT Data: Commercials are heavily net short with a COT Index blow-off signal, indicating distribution from strong hands to weak hands.
🎯 Trade Thesis
The risk-reward favors the short side from current levels.
Initial downside target sits at the $95k region (prior resistance turned support + EMA alignment).
A break of that level could open the door toward the $80k handle in the medium term.
📌 Plan
Entry: 114k–116k
Stop: Above 120k
Targets:
TP1: 95k
TP2: 80k
💡 This setup combines market structure, supply zone rejection, and institutional positioning via COT. The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback before any further sustainable rally.
📊 Key Technicals
Major Supply Zone: $115k–$120k area has acted as resistance, with sellers defending this level.
Trend Structure: Price has broken momentum after the blow-off move and is now trading below recent highs.
EMA Support: Price is extended above the EMA 60 (94k), leaving room for mean reversion.
COT Data: Commercials are heavily net short with a COT Index blow-off signal, indicating distribution from strong hands to weak hands.
🎯 Trade Thesis
The risk-reward favors the short side from current levels.
Initial downside target sits at the $95k region (prior resistance turned support + EMA alignment).
A break of that level could open the door toward the $80k handle in the medium term.
📌 Plan
Entry: 114k–116k
Stop: Above 120k
Targets:
TP1: 95k
TP2: 80k
💡 This setup combines market structure, supply zone rejection, and institutional positioning via COT. The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback before any further sustainable rally.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.