BTC: local top?

16 Nis 2021

BTC UPDATE: In my opinion we should be cautious with any risk asset at the moment; stocks and crypto. This looks very much like 2018 where we saw BTC top out and alts going parabolic before the bear markets started. I see a lot of new people entering the space over the last weeks / months and obviously they get angry when I say this but I do not believe its a good moment to enter. I trade the market with a lot of caution. I am not saying that we will enter a 4 year bear market but if we break that red line; you might wanna consider selling (understatement).

BEARISH CONFLUENCE:
- Gold starting an uptrend
- DXY recovering from a downtrend
- Cryptocap getting rejected around 2.2TN
- Head and shoulders / M pattern on BTC
- Majors: BTC and ETH down; alts parabolic
- 90% or more of the market in profit
- S&P500 very close to my measuremnt price target of around 4191 (currently: 4170)
- BTC rejected in upper regression band (63K and above)
- Pi cycle cross / date confluence

So what if we break the red support line? Then I expect further downside and we can bounce back up in any of the boxes. If you are in crypto for the LONG term and you will only take profits in 4 or 5 years; I suggest to have your money in fundamentally strong projects and not look at the charts at all and come back at the next halving. If you have invested money you need in the short term; I think you should be cautious and should take profits and be patient on the sidelines for a while to see what happens. (It is never advisable to invest money you need in your daily live, just trade with money you can miss.) We will get good entries again when we bottom out but first lets see where we bottom out. I personally think we will at least fill that gap at the mid 50's. Remember, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. A little bounce upwards doesnt mean we continue the bull run and a big dump doesnt mean the bull run is over. We havent tested the bull market support at all this bull run; which is around the mid 40's by now. FYI: we tested the bull market support band multiple times in the 2017 bull run. If you need more information which I assume you do by looking at ideas on tradingview; I personally recommend to check Benjamin Cowen on YouTube; I believe he has a lot of great knowledge but that doesnt mean I always agree with him. I'm taking a little break which is much need anyways after ripping the markets for many months with you all, thanks for all the support and I think we made great gains together; time to chill and wait for a bottom. Big love and respect to everyone here even the haters, I have no problems with people cursing at my posts as I know markets are volatile and getting emotional is a given. However as a trader we need to be rational how hard that sometimes is.

IMPORTANT: trade or invest based on your own risk and research, you decide what is good for you and your situation, no one else can decide for you. I'm not always right nor is any trader, do your own research and risk analysis!