BTC Cycle Bottom?

BTC has historically dropped 82% from cycle highs to cycle lows. This cycle was a bit different in that we had a double top sort of pattern, instead of the typical blow-off top. We did not reach the top of the historic parabolic channel, which would of put us at roughly 100k. An 82% drop from 100k would bring us down to around 18k. What if we break 20k and bottom around 18k, perhaps a bit lower? I think the bears would then be calling for 12k. BearTrapSet?