Bitcoin 2020+

20 Eki 2019

I don't really interested in small fluctuations of btc price, day trading or scalping. I'm interested in fact are there global perspectives on this cryptocurrency and in what price level is going to be in the future.

I hear from many traders, that there would be mass adoption soon, but actually situation has not changed much after the fall of MtGox. Bitcoin set up itself as digital gold, a storage value, that nobody can take from you, as a method for those payments that you don't want to share with your government. But that's it. Salary in bitcoins? Shopping using bitcoins? No way. If it has not changed yet, why should it change in the near future?

The HODL philosophy stands on the fact, that no matter how low are prices now, BTC will grow again in the future. Here we see exponential growth in a "pure" market. Unlike gold, fiat, stock market, bitcoin has very little connections with the real world values. In stock markets there is strong connection between the possible future of current company and the price, but the price of BTC is changing "in the air", following only the market psychology.

BTC is still almost a synonym to a cryptocurrency. It has it's name. BTC has no connection to banks, organisations, developer personalities like Vitalic Buterin. Satoshi Nakamoto made what BTC is because he was anonymous.

What could break the current exponential trend?
- price fall below certain level. If price falls too much - it breaks the HODLers' faith. There is fibonacci level at 7200 ahead, confirmed support at 6000-6400, 2018 low at 3K. But if we break 3K there could be panic sell that we had not seen yet in the history of BTC.
- new popular crypto from large companies like TON or Libra. But those cryptos anyway would have connection "on the ground" to Telegram or Facebook.

Some traders thinks that the long historical wave 3 has came to an end in the end of 2017, and global 5 wave is yet to come. Others think that it was the end of historical wave 5, and now we have a global correction since a beginning of exponential growth.

If we finished historical wave 5, then we likely still in correction. It should end at the region where global 4 wave is finished. About 200$ per BTC.
If we are still in 4 historical wave or in the beginning of wave 5, then the correction is likely finished already. Or we would see another dump to 3K levels, and then up.