BTC fake new bull

17 Eki 2023

好久沒有特別寫一篇BTC
今天來寫一下為什麼我上一篇寫到有機會到38000
特別是經歷了昨天的fake new bull
先說一下我的觀點 很有機會再上攻 但是要配合美股
而且攻完後很有機會像我先前說的 到點立即瀑布
另外一個滿足的條件是我認為需要再回測一波


it's been a long time since I wrote a special piece about BTC.
Today, I'll talk about why in my previous article, I mentioned the possibility of it reaching 38,000, especially after experiencing the fake news bull market yesterday.

First, let me express my viewpoint. There is a good chance for another upward move, but it would likely require alignment with the performance of the U.S. stock market. Furthermore, after this potential upward move, there is a high likelihood of a rapid decline, similar to what I previously mentioned as an BLX abrupt 'waterfall' scenario

Another fulfilling condition is that I believe there needs to be another round of retesting

“前情提要” "Previously"

BTC

最近上下插針的很嚴重
主要是流動性問題
中長期來說分歧很大
建議是短線操作
因為在流動性不足的情況下
我認為所謂的牛要回來很困難
因為連股市都不好了 要資金進來更難
會有所謂的小瘋牛我同意
但是目前情況真牛不可能
我個人估計 +-38500 大約是可能潛在的頂部
但是時間上有點難達成了
尤其是目前情勢上有困難

Lately, there has been a lot of volatility.
Mainly due to liquidity issues.
In the medium to long term, there is a lot of divergence.
My recommendation is short-term trading
because in the absence of liquidity,
I believe it's very difficult for the so-called bull market to return.
Even a small "crazy bull" I agree with,
but currently, a true bull market is unlikely.
I personally estimate around +-38500 is a possible potential top,
but it's a bit difficult to achieve, especially given the current situation.


我先來肢解一下我的方式
先設定一下POE 2020/11/26-今天
然後設置水平線標記

First, let me break down my approach. I'll start by setting a timeframe for POE from November 26, 2020, to today, and then I'll place horizontal line markers.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/G3tXwgrg/

接下來/And
2020/11/26-2022/05/12
2022/05/12-Today

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tTq8u749/

做完後可以得到一份完整的POE圖表

接下來就是畫趨勢線
我個人一直認為2021-9到12月是假突破
所以我的趨勢線可能會不一樣
但是請你慢慢看下去
另外前底部我是2021-1-4號為起點 連到5-19底部

After completing all step, you can get a complete chart of POE. Next is to draw a trendline. Personally, I've always believed that September to December 2021 was a false breakout, so my trendlines might be different. Please take your time to look at it. Additionally, for the previous bottom, I use January 4, 2021, as the starting point and connect it to the bottom on May 19.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cDHDS9z2/

趨勢線完成後 請使用Fib 阻力扇
沿著趨勢線畫一道
After completing the trendline, please use the Fibonacci retracement fan along the trendline

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mKkzJx9N/

然後在底部 （量最大）
連上2023-3月回測的底部
在一道阻力扇

Then, at the bottom (with the highest volume), connect it to the bottom from the March 2023 retest and draw another Fibonacci retracement fan

https://www.tradingview.com/x/h5AhKkJH/

之後先把阻力扇關掉 留下趨勢線
我們知道通常三角收斂表態後 開口等於力道
請看白線

Next, turn off the Fibonacci retracement fans and keep the trendline. We know that usually, after a triangular convergence, the opening signifies strength. Please see the white line

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BqURGTPK/

這邊證明了 教科書是有用的 (笑)
This demonstrates that textbooks are useful (chuckles).

那是否可以用來推論 2021/7月的上漲幅的 （藍線)
同時可以把之前的POE打開一起看
是否發現這個區域 （38317-40151）
非常的糾結
配合上傳統11-12美股轉強加上選舉因素
我才會認為有一個漲幅空間

Can we use this to infer the upward movement in July 2021 (the blue line)? You can also open the previous POE chart and see if you notice this range (38317-40151). It's quite tangled, combined with the traditional strength in the U.S. stock market during November-December and election factors. This is why I believe there is room for an upward movement.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yDJMK98W/

接下來在打開阻力扇
通常上下趨勢交界的時候都有比較大的波幅 只是沒想到會是fake news

但是這證明了一件事情
這個市場目前是被嚴重操作
以目前的情況我認為年底前
配合美股還有機會上漲
區域範圍就如我上篇提到的38500 （38317-40151）


但是壞新聞來了
如果局勢繼續走低 尤其是美國情況無法短時間轉向
國際紛爭無法有共識

最壞情況請看下圖
尤其如果真的走向我提到的失落10年
（話說 最近華爾街也開始有人提到這個觀點）

However, this proves one thing: the current market is heavily manipulated. Given the current situation, I believe there is a chance for an upward movement by the end of the year, in the range as mentioned in my previous article, 38,500 (38317-40151).
But here comes the bad news. If the situation continues to worsen, especially if the U.S. situation doesn't turn around quickly and there is no consensus on international disputes, please see the worst-case scenario in this chart. Especially if it truly leads to the 'Lost Decade' as I mentioned. (By the way, recently, even Wall Street has begun to discuss this possibility.)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QM1lYExy/

當然這個會是很極端的情況下
需要很多情況配合
只是單純分享一下
最壞可能會到什麼程度

Of course, this is an extremely extreme scenario that requires a lot of conditions to align. I'm just sharing what the worst-case scenario might look like."