BITCOIN A Halving centered approach

This study is exactly what the title suggests. I have plotted all 3 of Bitcoin Cycle's on the same chart, centered around their Halving. If you've got a little lost maybe the snapshot below can make things a little clearer:



So back to the main chart. The vertical orange line is the Halving. That's H1, H2, H3 for each of the Cycles. Each Cycle plotted is BTC's price action before and after its Halving.

* For Cycle 1 (blue line), it is the price action before and after Halving 1 (Nov. 28, 2021).
* For Cycle 2 (black line), it is the price action before and after Halving 2 (July 09, 2016).
* For Cycle 3 (green line), it is the price action before and after Halving 3 (May 11, 2020).

So what conclusions can we draw from that approach?

The first and most obvious is that on each price action leading to the Halving, we see an accumulation phase, which is natural as the market prepares for the supply shock.

Perhaps the most important element we can draw from this plot, is that the Cycle's tend to diverge at times but then they converge. Keep that in mind.

Then comes the Parabolic Phase, which starts after each Halving. Each time we had a 1st correction around half-way through the Cycle, and then continuation that led to the All Time High (ATH). As you see if we draw those trend-lines we can assume that the 1st pull-back may be approaching on the current Cycle. Also that the next Cyclical Top (ATH) should be below the previous, assuming the Cycles converge again. That is because as you see after Cycle 3 (green) broke above the 20k ATH, it diverged significantly from Cycle 2 (black). If this behavioral aspect is correct, then they should converge again and possibly make the next ATH below Cycle 2 peak.

So what do you make of this study? Does it offer a new perspective for you? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


P.S. This is not the first time I bring forward the issue of Divergence and Convergence between market Cycles. On May 16, 2019 I posted this study below:

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