6/18/25 - $bill - Meh in this tape. "ignore"/ fry diff fish

6/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: BILL
Meh in this tape. "ignore"/ fry diff fish

- friend DM'd me today "V what about BILL?"
- too much brain damage to care.
- i a world where AI wasn't gutting SMB software, where SMB wasn't being handed a noose by our gov't and interest rates were not 4.5% and likely to rise... i'd say "sure". but this is parallel universe is not the one i wake up to everyday.
- so barely any earnings growth, most of the FCF is stock comp (which is fine for co's that have stock charts up and to the right, not the opposite here).. "what is the right valuation"? well... ask a PE shop. these guys like to overpay for everything. they'll tell you it's $80. good luck with that one. these guys also mark their books by licking one finger and shoving another one up their backsides.
- truth is... idk what it's worth, except to say this:
- i can find a ton of other stuff with FAR better valuation, FAR better growth, FAR LESS stock comp/ dilution and FAR LESS macro-factor-related headache. And even those "alternatives" aren't even that obvious.
- "gotcha V but what price to look again?"
- "reality is, if things get so abysmal in the economy that this think takes a deeper bath... i'd still probably find other stuff that still a/ grows faster, b/ has better cash returns etc. etc. and would prefer to own that stuff at a discount". it's always possible tmr this goes -20% and everything else "stays the same". unlikely. and i don't spend my time thinking about sub 1% probability events.

so tl;dr... i don't really watch this thing anymore.
tbh, i find most B2B/ SaaS software still too expensive. even if AI ultimately doesn't gut their businesses in the next say 1-3 years... that "threat" is always going to keep multiples compressed. so i don't look at any software as much as I do anymore, unless it's attached to a hardware platform e.g. NVDA, TSLA... etc. i know that sounds boring, but i don't think small caps will "come back" vs. larger-scale-cap stuff that has reached takeoff velocity. i think big co's not screwing up will keep winning. and while BILL might eventually get taken out, i don't like putting "take out" as a cope for buying a down and to the right stock. that's private equity mentality. that's not facing the music. there are no chairs. there is no more music and you're left with a stock that nobody wants.

i like the founder. i like the co.

but the stock is no longer on my care-to-care list. ignore.

V