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BCH-Cycle Wave 3-The Great Wave-Part 1
$BITFINEX:BCHUSDhas completed Cycle Wave 2 and is beginning Cycle Wave 3 now!
Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.
Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.
Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.
Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory
Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)
Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)
Review:
Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex
Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1
Primary Wave Sequence
Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%
Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%
Primary Wave Fib Time
Primary Wave Fib Extension:
Primary Wave Fib Spirals:
The Failed Wave
I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.
Review:
Cycle Wave 1 & 2
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.
This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.
Will update.
-AB
Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.
Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.
Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.
Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory
Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)
Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)
Review:
Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex
Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1
Primary Wave Sequence
Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%
Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%
Primary Wave Fib Time
Primary Wave Fib Extension:
Primary Wave Fib Spirals:
The Failed Wave
I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.
Review:
Cycle Wave 1 & 2
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.
This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.
Will update.
-AB
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Lower Degree Wave 1 Retrace was approx. 23.6%. Lower Degree Wave 1 Extended
= Higher Degree Extend
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Added: Fib Time Ext. on Higher and Lower Wave 1Not
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Massive move incoming...Not
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Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be completeNot
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Think I count 5 Sub-Waves...Not
Wave C Complete.Not
Now we should see a sharp move higher...Not
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Spirals can be a great timing and target mechanism...Not
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Above: The Complete ABC correctionNot
Check the indicators for confirmation...Not
FYI: Spirals are distorted since indicators are shownNot
Favorite MACD setting: 21, 33, 18Shows less false signals than 12, 26, 9
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Indicators all look good. Ultimate Oscillator momentum trending higher
EMA Wave indicating a Positive Convergence
MACD is about to crossover
Elder Force shows a Divergence
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Wave C = Wave 1Not
Russian Nesting Doll EffectIf you do not know what Russian Nesting Dolls are please Google "Russian Nesting Dolls".
Otherwise you will have no idea what I am talking about...
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Above: Wave C = Wave 1Not
Purple = Wave 1 SequenceYellow = Wave C Sequence
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The only Wave Sequence that is allowed to violate Elliot's Wave RulesNot
Wave 3 violated Wave 1 Price AreaNot
Excuse me: Wave 4 violated Wave 1 Price AreaNot
Better View of SequenceNot
Sub Wave Count: ABC CorrectionNot
Sub-Wave Count for Primary WaveNot
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Added:Fib Ext. = Wave 1 (0) - Wave 1 (T) - Wave C = Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 1 (T) - Sub-Wave 2 (T) = Sub-Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 4 (T) = Sub-Wave 5 Levels
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (1-0) = Target Wave 3
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (T) - Wave C (T) = Timeline Wave 3 to begin
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Changed Spiral ColorAdded Time Range
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(0) = Point Zero or Beginning of Wave/Sub-Wave(T) = Terminal Wave Point or End of Wave/Sub-Wave
(x) = Sub-Wave (1,2,3,4,5)
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After C Wave Finished the price-action has done a sets of 5-3-5.Complex Correction.
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We are right at the APEX!Not
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Broke the Leading Diagonal...Not
Once that dam (Leading Diagonal) is broken the price-Action should be racing higher...Not
Added Fib Extension: S1 & S2 = S3 Key LevelsNot
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VindicationNot
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Analysis Proven.Confirmed Correction is OVER!
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Yup...
Lovin it.
This will take awhile to cool down...
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ZigZag Correction AnticipatedNot
If Wave A comes down in 5 Sub-WavesNot
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Wave C could be a good trade...Not
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Wave C happening now...Fib Ext. Wave A & Wave B = Wave C Levels
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$507-$520. Possible Trade Level.Not
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Wave 3 is extendingNot
Wave 3 significantly passed 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Level from Wave 1 & 2.Not
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Note: Sub-Wave 3 extendedNot
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ZigZag Correction
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Higher Wave Not
Wave Sequence so far...Not
Fib Spiral Theory - Wave 1 Spiral = Wave 3 Terminal = Check
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Finding levels where the 5th Wave/Higher 1st Degree could end.Not
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$556 looks interesting$520 looks interesting
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This could be a Wave Sequence.Wave 1 - 5.85%
Wave 3 -12.40%
Wave 5 - 6.42%
Or
Wave 5 could trend near equality to Wave 3
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I’m more inclinded to Wave 5 extending...Not
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Current Sub-Wave CountNot
Might have a ZigZag Correction here...Not
Sold @ 483.03Not
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STOP Hit 484.99Not
If the 5th Wave did not extend...the correction would have been at the $484 level. Now, $520-$566 are the next levels to watch for...
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Added Fib Spiral: Wave 4Not
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1.618 BreachedStill extending
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Still going...Not
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$590 is the next level...Not
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Fib Ext: 0-3-4 = 5th Key LevelsPassing 1.618
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Lower Extension Trigger AddedNot
Lower=BlueHigher=Green
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Correction looks to be inbound...Not
Yellow box = Wave SequenceNot
Sell: $546.00Buy: $480.00
Watch for Extensions
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Yellow Box Sequence:1 - 6.4%
2 - 16.4%
3 - 6.5%
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$590 next stopNot
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I think we MAY have hit exhaustion with the First Wave Sequence.Not
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Stopped out again...Passed Extension line
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Ignore Stop Sell...forgot to removeNot
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$613-$671 Levels to watch.Not
BCH is looking to take off again...Not
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Fib Spiral Target: $720Not
Not going to put on another trade until 100% certain we are at the Terminal 5th/Higher 1st.I suspect that will be around $720.
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Correction Now:Not
Target $508 - $498Not
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Added:Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Wave A (T)
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 3 (T)
Regression Trend: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 3 (T)
Channel Line: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 2 (T)
Wave 1 = 15.72%
Wave 3 = 30.41%
Wave C = -11.44% Estimate
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Watch $530 level...If $530 Fails...watch $480-$485
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STOP-BUY triggered $547Not
4.52% GainNot
STOP-SELL $550Not
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Still Sold @ $550Stop-Limit Buy @ $475
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1st Wave Sequence Complete2nd Wave Correction Now...
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The most common retrace for Wave 2 is Fibonacci Level .618.Not
Wave 1 only retraced .382STOP-BUY triggered $553.
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590 Key Level I have been talking about for awhile...Not
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STOP-BUY turns into STOP-SELL but a little higher to cover exchange fees...Not
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Looks like a Wave Sequence to me...Not
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Good Trade opportunity possible...Not
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Looking to test $566...Not
Always watch for extensions and have a STOP-BUY on ALWAYS! If you are trading the Waves!Not
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Let's find the 5th Extension levels...Not
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Above: Key 5th LevelsNot
Let's see if a Wave will trend near equality...Not
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Wave 1 & 5 are currently trending toward equality...Not
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It's either Correction or Snap higher...Not
Inclined to correction...Not
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Added Fib Time Extension to Correction Sub-Wave SequenceAdded Fib Time Extension to Sub-Wave Sequence
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Ignore STOP. Chart is just price-action update.
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Still extending...Not
$720 area still looks to be a Terminal point.Not
Correction Now. Unsure if it is the Higher Degree Correction
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Stop Sell Triggered @ 620Not
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The way it sold off makes me think it is the higher degreeNot
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ReviewNot
$660 next level...Not
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STOP SELL triggered @ 628.90Not
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Having trouble here with the Fibonacci Level .5...Fib Ext. (0-3-4)
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604 is Sub-Wave 1 Terminal for the 5th Wave SequenceNot
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If 598 fails look to the lower terminal sub-waves
563 Sub-Wave Terminal
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Sub-Wave Sequence held...STOP-BUY triggered @ 613
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Watch 624 and 630...Not
Wave A completeNot
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620 is failing...Not
Higher Degree Correction?Not
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The main trade we have been waiting for?Not
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STOP-LIMIT BUY @ 556Not
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Excuse above.Not
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Watch the Blue Levels for the retracement...Not
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Green Spiral is Wave 2 Retrace TargetNot
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Wave 1 & 5 trended to equality.Not
Primary Wave SequenceNot
Retrace to $475-$480 likelyNot
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Fib Time Ext. Sub-Wave 1 = Time Frame of Higher WaveNot
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STOP-LIMIT BUY @ $480Not
Buy Zone: $488-$476-$459Not
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Lowered Buy to @ $465.This will be a fast move...
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Primary Wave Sequence Hit 1.236 Level of Fib Extension of higher Wave 1 & 2Not
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Staying course to buy @ $465. Bottom is probably $455-$465.
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Action update: Stay the courseNot
Quick Drop Imminent...Not
Time Estimate to Begin Primary Wave 3 Not
Buy still @ $465Not
Action update:Not
Action update:Not
Action update: Not
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Action update:Watch $480 level...
Buy still @ 465
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Trade Executed @ 465.00Not
Great Trade: Sold @ $617 / Bought @ $465 = +152Not
Coinbase's bottom was exactly $465.00Not
Correction ending soon...Not
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Part 1 is coming to an end...New idea coming shortly...
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Primary Wave 3 inbound with HIGH expectations!Not
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Above: Action update.Let's Find Primary Wave 3 Levels...
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Primary Wave 3 Target: $841-$697Not
MASSIVE SQUEEZE...SPIKE!
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Reminder: Wave 1's are usually always sloppy....Spike Anticipated.
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Added STOP...be carefulNot
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The third wave usually begins by the price racing upwards...Not
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Wave is holding...Not
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Primary Wave 2 Retraced 100% of Primary Wave 1 = NormalNot
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all good so far...Not
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Back to 520...Possible trade maybe...
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BCH Forkgoogle.com/amp/s/bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/when-fork-forks-what-you-need-know-bitcoin-cash-goes-war/amp/
Don’t miss it...
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Ultimate Oscillator showing divergence...good sign.Not
Maybe the unanticipated extra drop was due from money flowing out the exchanges into cold wallets for the forkNot
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Fork is probably impacting the Wave count...Do not anticipate this price range to last long....
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Think we have a complex correction...Not
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Possible Double ZigZagNot
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Need to hold Green Spiral...Spike up anticipated.
Complex Corrections imply strong moves ahead...
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Above: Possible Trade Opportunity between $775-$693Not
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Crypto markets about to get crazy...Not
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Elder Force and MACD Note the Elder Force divergence.
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Weekly: Ultimate Oscillator and OBV Not
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Above: Added Fib TimeNot
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Above: BCH ABC & BCH SV / BTCBCH ABC looks like the Winner.
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BCH ABC is just chugging along...building stabilityNot
I suspect that gap that was created because of the fork will be closed when trading opens...Not
Therefore, the BCH hash war will not be decided in 1 or 2 days, but over many days and possibly weeks by on-going miner votes with sustained Proof of Work. Until a dominant chain emerges, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet and service providers are advised to remain neutral, and to run a Bitcoin SV node to be prepared for the best interests of users.Not
Watch the battle play out here: cash.coin.dance/Not
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BCHSV is trying to breakoutNot
Update on SV:Not
Update on ABC:Not
Almost looks like both are going to survive for now...I favor SV chart
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ABC is breaking down...Not
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During this test, SVPool and BMG Group successfully generated five full 32MB blocks—proof “that there are mining systems on the BCH network today that are ready to mine blocks larger than 32MB,” according to the pre-stress test report. SVPool, a personal initiative of Dr. Craig Wright, and nChain’s BMG Group run Bitcoin SV (Satoshi Vision), the full node implementation designed to fulfill the vision set out by Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper.Not
Meanwhile, mining pools that run Bitcoin ABC achieved much smaller blocks during the pre-test: ViaBTC mined a single 8MB block, while most other blocks mined using Bitcoin ABC were at most 1-2MB during the pre-test.Not
Neck and Neck here...Not
ABC stalling?SV gaining?
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Watching history here... Blockchain will disrupt almost every sector...
You are already seeing it impacting the banking sector...
In the future services will be paid for in tokens...
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Stabilizing?Not
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SV is producing substantially larger blocks.Not
SV is producing 32MBABC is producing 4MB
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Need to produce large blocks for micropaymentsNot
Very Bullish Formation here for ABC!Not
Sub-Wave 1 has completed and Sub-Wave 2 of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave is finishing now...Not
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Target $292...
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Added SVNot
Question is can they both survive or does one have to kill the other?Not
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Wave 1 - NormalWave 3 - Breached 1.681 could extend
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If Wave 1 & 3 are Normal look for the 5th to extend.Not
SV & ABC seem to have stabilized for now and have convereged.Not
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Target of 292 almost hit...Not
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SV could COULD have a massive move here shortly...Complex Correction...
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ABC vs. SV update:Not
ABC Update: Wave 3 DID extend...
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1.681 breached of S1 & S2Not
BCH = ABC + SV$440ish...
Getting back to where we were before the fork...
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I can’t tell you which chain will survive...I would need a computer science degree for that but can tell you that this will not be decided in days...Not
SV update: Micro-Wave Forming?Not
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Target $140Not
Indicators look good.Not
SV is still producing blocks far superior than ABC...Proof of Work lead by ABC still declining
Block Size:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance
POW:
screenshots.firefox.com/nyiKnuGFlJv5vNvB/cash.coin.dance
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Nodes (Log) : screenshots.firefox.com/LjgXg63dlcguKbjA/cash.coin.danceNot
Correct Block Size Screenshot: screenshots.firefox.com/jeTUn8evvIDGLgpY/cash.coin.danceNot
It's interesting too that SV controlled almost 70% of Hash power pre-split...Another good question is, is ABC (Group) renting hash power and how long can they rent hash power for days, weeks, months?
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Looks like we have a HASH WARNot
Transactions on ABC: screenshots.firefox.com/sEjFlqrgQb9J0hi3/jochen-hoenicke.deTransactions on SV: screenshots.firefox.com/ZC0XAf0btXKRm7cN/jochen-hoenicke.de
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Looks like a breakout is imminent for SVNot
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ABC wave completely failed.SV has not completely failed yet...
The result of the Hash War...
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.