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BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex
$BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.
This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.
For Further Analysis see related idea.
Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).
1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)
3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2
4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)
The Beginning:
Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent
The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.
The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.
There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.
The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.
A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.
The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.
The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.
The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.
Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.
The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.
Cheers!
-AB
This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.
For Further Analysis see related idea.
Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).
1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)
3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2
4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)
The Beginning:
Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent
The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.
The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.
There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.
The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.
A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.
The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.
The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.
The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.
Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.
The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.
Cheers!
-AB
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Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)
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S5 Target (Yellow)Not
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Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...Or Consolidate further into the Apex
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High Probablity of Breaking out...Elliot Rule...
Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...
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TRADE: BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475
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Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m
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Wave A TerminalNot
Wave B is Always 3 sub-wavesNot
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Here comes the trade...Not
Always be on alert for Extensions...Not
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Correction was not a flat...Internals of Waves are extremely important...
ZigZag Correction...
Do NOT Sell!
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Time to break the Leading Triangle?Not
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5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?Not
New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 TerminalNot
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Check this out...Next Move looks nuts...
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Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.Not
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Above: Extending S1Not
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Should beginning the move momentarily...Not
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Price-Action Update.Not
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Excuse above.Below:
Leading Diagonal
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Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonalNot
Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonalNot
Here is a better view. Larger Leading Diagonal = Green
Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue
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Time for Take-off?Not
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Price-Action update:Not
3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.Not
Excuse Above...Not
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Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and BNot
Marks the end of Cycle Wave CorrectionNot
Or aka Wave CNot
STOPNot
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Price-Action Update:Not
We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave. A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).
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Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)
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Correction: 2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree
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Lower Degree - TealHigher Degree - Green
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Higher Degree:Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800
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Key Levels:Not
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Above: Nearing the Apex.Not
Breakout Imminent!Not
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Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAGNot
Selling should be over or getting close...Not
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Live updates to make sure I am right about this moveNot
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Target Hit.Not
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A few more ticks to go...Not
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$436 is next targetNot
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Gap opening...Not
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Price-Action looks good.Analysis Stands.
Stay the course.
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Wave 5 is looking to extendNot
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Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends Scenario 2 : Correction
STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)
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Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis. Cheers!
-AB
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Correction: ZigZag instead of FlatNot
Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...Not
Failed WaveStop Triggered
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Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.Not
Excuse typing errors please on my phone.Not
Here is the image with the stops. Not
Analysis still stands.Stay the course.
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Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.Not
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Above: Higher Degree WaveNot
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Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levelsNot
Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382Not
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Price-Action is showing a leading DiagonalNot
The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws. Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave
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Breakout should be imminent...Not
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Lower Degree Wave 5 ExtendedHigher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend
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Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completionNot
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I will be updating throughout the day...Not
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Wave 3 Target hit.Not
Wave 3 ExtedningNot
Wave 3 Extension imminent.Not
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It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...Not
Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!Not
Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.Not
Extension Failed.Not
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Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.Not
Still expecting an Extended 5th WaveNot
1HR View: Not
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6HR View:Not
Price-Action looking very strong...Is it time for the Big Move?
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Wave 5 is extending...
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Added another spiral for Timing purposes.Not
Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5 Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin
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Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.Not
Fib Spirals played out exactly...
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The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.Not
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Next Target- Yellow box
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Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!Not
Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginningNot
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Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)Not
Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!Not
Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618Not
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Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.Not
40,000 Feet View (Always Important)Not
Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!Not
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The BIG move imminent...Not
Review: 1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING
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Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonalNot
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Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.Not
Micro-Wave Sequence complete.Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.
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Waves are like Russian Nesting DollsNot
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Trade opportunity! If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1
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Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.Not
Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).Not
-1HR View-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence
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This is where you would sell...Watch out for the extensions...
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Price-Action Broke 1.236 LevelWatch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...
Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.
Are the shorts starting to cover?
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Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...
This is how I read Fib Spirals...
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Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...Not
$562 level is still pointing out to me...Not
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Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.Not
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Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445Not
Trade Worked Perfect...Now, Let's go higher!
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Above: S1 & S2Not
Fib Extension of S1 & S2
-Added Stop
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Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...Not
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ZigZag Correction should be ending now...Not
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Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1 Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)
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STOP Added
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Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave SequenceNot
1HR View + Next Leg Higher TimelineNot
Daily View:Not
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Here is Wave 2 Bottom.Now we are going higher...
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Above: Sub-Wave SequenceNot
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Above:Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence
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5th Wave was NormalNot
Correction should be ending momentarily...Not
Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)Not
Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...These levels will likely not be seen again...
Buy what you can here.
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Will update shortly.Not
Wave 1 IS extending!Not
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Price-Action update Added Spiral
Forming Leading Diagonal
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Wave 1 extended then pulled back...Stop Triggered.
Opportunity to pick up more BCH.
Analysis still stands.
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Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat CorrectionNot
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Wave 2 Correction CompleteNot
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6HR ViewAdded Fib Extension (1&2)
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Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.Not
Hypothetical Price-ActionNot
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Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2Not
Price-Action Update:Not
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Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-WavesNot
Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)Not
Breakout imminentNot
Next Move should be large...Wave 3 beginning now.
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Expect Wave 5 to Extend.Not
Updated STOPNot
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1HR ViewNot
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Above: Fib Time of Wave 1Not
It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...Not
Excuse above...Not
Hypothetical Price-ActionNot
Looks like this is it...Back to $500's
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Price Action update: Not
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10 mins or so left...Not
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Price Action Update:Not
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In the 'Gap'Let's see which way it goes...
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Looks like we are going to have a correction sequenceNot
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Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correctionNot
Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.Not
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Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & BNot
Hypothetical ActionNot
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Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLATNot
Action Update:Not
#SlowwalkerNot
Action update: Not
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Micro-WaveWave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal
Expect higher degree 3 extension
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Correction should ending soon
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Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618Not
Action update:Not
This wave (3) should extendNot
Fib extension 1 & 2Not
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Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442Not
Price Action update:Not
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Notice all The Fib Spiral IntesectionsNot
Wave is tends to be a sloppy formationNot
Action update:Not
Above: Yellow Box: Failed Wave
Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation
*please excuse typing while on my phone.
Stay the course!
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Above:Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2
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Above: Hypothetical ActionNot
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We have to be getting close...Not
Note the Red Spiral IntersectionNot
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Getting really close to breaking out...Not
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Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginningNot
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S1 & S3 we’re near equality Expect 5th Wave to extend
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Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3Not
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We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...The next move high should begin at any moment...
Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..
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Correction close to endingNot
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Price should not go below S1(0)Not
Take emotion out and trust the analysisNot
Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action. Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.
Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!
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S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation. Not
You could place a STOP near S1(0)Not
My stop is at $424.89Not
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Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.
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Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...Not
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Here ya go...Not
Analysis is about to be proven correct...Not
Ye o little faith...Not
Last chance to load up on BCH!Not
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If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.Nothing more and nothing less...
I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.
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Looking good...Watch 1.618 Level
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$476.90Not
Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2Not
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ReviewNot
Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary WaveNot
Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2Not
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See the Leading Diagonal?Not
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Beautiful Chart Above...Fibonacci and Wave Theory
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Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key. Not
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Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours. Not
Add Fib Spirals to Sub-WavesAdded Scenarios
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Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.
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Sub-Wave Sequence CompleteNot
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Sub-Wave decided to further retrace. No change in analysis.
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Pretty good time estimate. Not
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Ignore stop above.Not
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Sub-Wave 3 was NormalNot
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Who dumped 5,000 BCH? Stench of Manipulation...
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Higher Degreee has not completely failed...Not
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IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...Not
Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.Not
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Original AnalysisNot
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If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...Not
Just double checked the Wave counts.Not
Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).Not
Found the Error...I messed up the ABC Correction...
Corrected below:
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ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)Not
Analysis StandsNot
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I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.Not
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Above: Log FormatNot
It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.Not
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BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...Not
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Corrected the Wave Count...Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal
Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...
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For those interested in my Fib Theory...Here is a test of it...
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Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...Not
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BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launchNot
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Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...Not
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Spiral TargetsMaybe Tradable
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Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning) Not
2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...Likely level for Terminal Wave 3
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Pink Sequence - Hypothetical ActionNot
Bigger picture...Not
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Do or die time!Not
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Will this analysis fail or be right...Just tell me!
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Fib Spiral Theory TestNot
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Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.Not
Better view of wave sequenceNot
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Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438Not
Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished. Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...
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Reminder:Highest Wave:
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Higher Degree Target:$6500Not
Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.Not
Heavy hitters on deckNot
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Wait for it...Batters on deck...
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Coinbase chartNot
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Heavy Hitters...The Rush...
Climax...
Everyone thought it was going lower...
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New idea coming soon...Not
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Strong MACD crossoverNot
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Breakout imminent...Not
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Wall Street money incoming...Not
Wave 3 was Normal.Expect extended 5th.
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Added Fib Extension 0-3-41.618 Target
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Wave Failed....Don't Panic...
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This will start a Wave SequenceNot
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Upside Down ABC CorrectionNot
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Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' SequenceCorrection: 3-3-5
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Ahh so close....Hurry up BCH!
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I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...It's ALMOST!
Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.
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Excuse me...Corrected Chart:
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This C Wave will make or break the analysis.Not
99.99% Positive my analysis is correct...Not
Damn, it feels good to be right...Not
New idea will be finished soon...1 hour or so...
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<deleted>Not
New Idea Above!Not
Correct Link:
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.