NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE

30 Oca 2023

GLOBAL UPDATE
-any selling pressure in us market is absorbed and short covering takes place
-s&p 500 and nasdaq catching up to dow jones
-weekly chart of us market is indicating bullish momenutm
-double bottom on nasdaq breakout on the card on weekly chart
-opening up another 1500-2000 point move on index
-s&p 500 weekly bearish trendline break plus ascending triangle breakout on the cards
-asian markets apart from india is looking good
-adani stocks battered due to report on the stock
-dampaning sentitment in markets


major thing to watch
-fii long exposure down to 25:75(short)
-dollar index below 102 levels
-US-10Y below 3.5
-fed policy on 1st feb
*market has factored a hike of only 25 bps
*hike of 50 bps will lead to selling pressure for short-term
*a hike of only 25 bps will lead to major short-covering and bigger move in the market

indian market update
*finally budget week is hear
*it is simple on raise in ltcg and in stt will lead to rally
*pre-election budget govt will focus on relieve for the common man
*an reduction in tax slab for both individual and corporate will lead to massive rally
*market fall in jan was for purely budget reasons and adani operators
*again expectation of 200-dma retest was fullfilled
*today both nifty and banknifty retested its 200-ema

NIFTY TECHNICAL UPATE
-breakdown of 17800 was seen
-as we expected a sharp sell off after breakdown
-17400 tested today and that is 80% of the range breakdown
-now the question rises will be re-enter the range and break on the high side
-probability is getting higher and higher day by day
-we are going into the event with negative sentiment and over pessimism
-fii long exposure is only 25%
-market is extremely oversold
-valuation are back at attractive level
*17500-to-17300 levels is buy zone
*risk reward ratio here is good
*stocks on radar
-Reliance
-Hdfc twins
-bajaj twins (bajfin/finsv)
-icici bank
-sbin
-tcs
-infy
all looking bullish for budget week


NIFTY MAJOR SUPPORT
17300-17400-17500
NIFTY MAJOR RESISTANCE
17830-17975-18120

BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-as expected after a gap down below 41500
-we expected a move towards 40000-39750
-but not so quick
-banknifty has fallen from
-43000 to 39500 in 4 trading sessions
-over reaction due to the exposure to adani group stocks
-technical speaking banknifty has tested its 200-ema
-today was a big volatile day as banknifty
-banknifty we went long near 40050 in the morning
-trade update in channel
-check the link belwo
-banknifty has given the range target
-reversing for the lows,banknifty pcr@0.54

BNF MAJOR SUPPORT
39250-39750-40000
BNF MAJOR RESISTANCE
40800-41500-41800